{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8aa1cdff-4de1-42f2-a0ee-e04241e0e283", "symbol": "003020", "name": "Hefei Lifeon Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.872, "architecture_energy": 11.989, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.55, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.02, "rotation_up": 33.18, "upward_expansion": 21.9, "deceleration": 41.3, "rotation_down": 20.72, "downward_expansion": 53.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.378, 16.918546, 17.033845, 17.711765 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.43, "trend_reference": 18.835616, "distance_from_trend": -0.021535, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.731859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039372, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.538762, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.156583, "excess_performance": -0.163983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021535, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039372, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007165, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131022, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156583, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.601674, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64082003, "relative_activity": 2.304712, "balance": 0.601674, "dry_up": 3.448886, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105325, "annualized_volatility": 0.411773, "from_high_reference": -0.45289, "from_low_reference": 0.25802 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.835616, "fair_value_reference": 17.731859, "structural_low": 14.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.0129, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.01216, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.333446, "worst_return": -0.161585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027723, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.025163, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.113259, "worst_return": -0.184546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.058105, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.097706, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.152218, "worst_return": -0.14109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016239, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096576, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097267, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.209871, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109461, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004833, "active": false 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17.278537, 18.127821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.6, "volume": 84824677, "typical_volume": 22101298.85, "trend": 19.105086, "fair_value": 17.788256, "relative_strength": -26.976907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.273325, "energy": 28.514695, "activity_lines": [ 16.825333, 16.427492, 17.047722, 17.888031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.870001, "volume": 64782579, "typical_volume": 25016518.2, "trend": 18.927034, "fair_value": 17.749795, "relative_strength": -19.233089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.255071, "energy": 21.993696, "activity_lines": [ 16.915334, 16.534182, 16.959721, 17.743832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.43, "volume": 64082003, "typical_volume": 27804773.2, "trend": 18.835616, "fair_value": 17.731859, "relative_strength": -15.538762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.871966, "energy": 11.989167, "activity_lines": [ 17.378, 16.918546, 17.033845, 17.711765 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }