{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ab1ea3c-b1ca-49a5-a21c-624c3b4f3644", "symbol": "LESL", "name": "Leslies\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.707, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.787, "architecture_energy": 40.498, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 55.831, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.12, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 19.9, "deceleration": 70.06, "rotation_down": 70.56, "downward_expansion": 44.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.652933, 3.917982, 4.18109, 3.600789 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.17, "trend_reference": 2.864827, "distance_from_trend": -0.591598, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.325544, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.97628, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.616832, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.181818, "excess_performance": -0.369272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.591598, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.483756, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.97628, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001795, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.696168, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046882, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.048485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8173203, "relative_activity": 1.490786, "balance": 2.048485, "dry_up": 1.781896, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 2.116739, "annualized_volatility": 2.341468, "from_high_reference": -0.906624, "from_low_reference": 0.4625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.864827, "fair_value_reference": 49.325544, "structural_low": 0.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.77193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.342029, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.844417, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.230284, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 131.8, "volume": 14845637, "typical_volume": 21619089.5, "trend": 206.06, "fair_value": 373.02585, "relative_strength": -53.245222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.977378, "energy": 59.646884, "activity_lines": [ 132.666667, 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"fair_value": 51.88605, "relative_strength": -38.744874, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.258695, "energy": 30.485217, "activity_lines": [ 6.149333, 6.422727, 4.907292, 3.946773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.24, "volume": 5952139, "typical_volume": 4715898.05, "trend": 2.911793, "fair_value": 51.092717, "relative_strength": -68.260459, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.506701, "energy": 19.20624, "activity_lines": [ 4.146, 5.572727, 4.677179, 3.837991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.951, "volume": 8261292, "typical_volume": 5102890.25, "trend": 2.885827, "fair_value": 50.214197, "relative_strength": -74.799238, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.087631, "energy": 34.798669, "activity_lines": [ 2.575, 4.702727, 4.418161, 3.711488 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.17, "volume": 8173203, "typical_volume": 5482478.55, "trend": 2.864827, "fair_value": 49.325544, "relative_strength": -69.616832, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.787152, "energy": 40.497843, "activity_lines": [ 1.652933, 3.917982, 4.18109, 3.600789 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }