{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ab8d2e3-859d-4756-ab4b-e4d93e211d18", "symbol": "MGLU3", "name": "Magazine Luiza S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.017, "architecture_energy": 65.777, "architecture_maturity": 94.527, "architecture_confidence": 94.469, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.51, "rotation_up": 29.66, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.63, "rotation_down": 51.92, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.742, 4.763273, 5.4843, 6.312732 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.4, "trend_reference": 7.369766, "distance_from_trend": -0.402966, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.803251, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.592715, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.663616, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.564571, "excess_performance": -0.507522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.402966, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157565, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.592715, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.466636, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171006, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.564571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.314787, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108351900, "relative_activity": 1.615544, "balance": 0.314787, "dry_up": 1.330974, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13951, "annualized_volatility": 0.534179, "from_high_reference": -0.615544, "from_low_reference": 0.057692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.369766, "fair_value_reference": 10.803251, "structural_low": 4.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.078563, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.05162, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.441559, "worst_return": -0.3379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.18, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.197304, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.424658, "worst_return": -0.626984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.333292, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.35405, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.198718, "worst_return": -0.667196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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56.092926, "activity_lines": [ 4.893333, 4.871818, 5.687311, 6.513786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.4, "volume": 108351900, "typical_volume": 67068375.0, "trend": 7.369766, "fair_value": 10.803251, "relative_strength": -46.663616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.017463, "energy": 65.776729, "activity_lines": [ 4.742, 4.763273, 5.4843, 6.312732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }