{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8ab9781d-6265-42d1-a1bb-fb8715c75cba",
    "symbol": "RIO",
    "name": "Rio Tinto Group",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 9.251,
    "architecture_energy": 7.167,
    "architecture_maturity": 23.05,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.817,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 58.25,
        "rotation_up": 26.53,
        "upward_expansion": 30.5,
        "deceleration": 71.53,
        "rotation_down": 37.94,
        "downward_expansion": 23.17
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        7143.2,
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      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 7528.0,
    "trend_reference": 7143.771924,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.053785,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 5434.858668,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.385133,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 10.507996,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.100396,
    "excess_performance": 0.04916,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053785,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.07994,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.385133,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.083158,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.10508,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.202312,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.100396,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.256778,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 21574367,
      "relative_activity": 2.007071,
      "balance": 2.256778,
      "dry_up": 1.500621,
      "accumulation_observations": 6,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.106985,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.285435,
      "from_high_reference": -0.17429,
      "from_low_reference": 0.697286
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 7143.771924,
      "fair_value_reference": 5434.858668,
      "structural_low": 5629.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": -0.015917,
        "positive_rate": 0.315789,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.315789,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00785,
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        "worst_return": -0.160386,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.054293,
        "regime_survival": 0.111111,
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        "worst_return": -0.192226,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
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        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.207151,
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
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        "trend": 7143.771924,
        "fair_value": 5434.858668,
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        "stage": 2,
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    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}