{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8abcaccc-c7f9-4129-a745-46f83f9878c7", "symbol": "V3PA", "name": "Vanguard ESG Developed Asia Pacific All Cap UCITS ETF USD Accumulating", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.022, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.887, "architecture_energy": 27.097, "architecture_maturity": 64.675, "architecture_confidence": 83.585, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.39, "rotation_up": 18.52, "upward_expansion": 53.33, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 36.31, "downward_expansion": 19.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.261867, 9.448327, 9.3666, 9.107822 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.386, "trend_reference": 8.7643, "distance_from_trend": 0.070935, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.752564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.389991, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.523209, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.16843, "excess_performance": -0.002462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070935, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095944, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.389991, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031143, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005232, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16843, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.971309, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165529, "relative_activity": 3.317357, "balance": 0.971309, "dry_up": 2.098257, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045698, "annualized_volatility": 0.247801, "from_high_reference": -0.082323, "from_low_reference": 0.39735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.7643, "fair_value_reference": 6.752564, "structural_low": 7.623, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, 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0.004356, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.086097, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004356, "worst_return": 0.004356, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013786, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064389, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007583, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.00456, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02012, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027523, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004447, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002496, "active": false }, { "regime": 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6.661301, "relative_strength": 7.124396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.079804, "energy": 65.902362, "activity_lines": [ 9.849333, 9.720436, 9.271133, 8.956206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.08, "volume": 62474, "typical_volume": 39940.8, "trend": 8.583833, "fair_value": 6.683532, "relative_strength": 1.183285, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.12026, "energy": 45.425698, "activity_lines": [ 9.590533, 9.629945, 9.288976, 8.992331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.281, "volume": 61384, "typical_volume": 38850.5, "trend": 8.6515, "fair_value": 6.706263, "relative_strength": 3.360054, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.735669, "energy": 28.84212, "activity_lines": [ 9.434533, 9.577, 9.324033, 9.03731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.066, "volume": 129407, "typical_volume": 43687.25, "trend": 8.707567, "fair_value": 6.727974, "relative_strength": 0.120101, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.4263, "energy": 27.373984, "activity_lines": [ 9.266133, 9.481764, 9.3327, 9.064052 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.386, "volume": 165529, "typical_volume": 49897.85, "trend": 8.7643, "fair_value": 6.752564, "relative_strength": 0.523209, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.886755, "energy": 27.097461, "activity_lines": [ 9.261867, 9.448327, 9.3666, 9.107822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }