{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8abd16ca-71e7-42ca-b2a5-1bae4547fb0a", "symbol": "GRE", "name": "Grenergy Renovables, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.973, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -50.604, "architecture_energy": 69.315, "architecture_maturity": 19.238, "architecture_confidence": 77.302, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.29, "rotation_up": 16.55, "upward_expansion": 23.01, "deceleration": 43.32, "rotation_down": 77.7, "downward_expansion": 67.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.546666, 102.438181, 110.046191, 111.010968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 91.599998, "trend_reference": 109.763333, "distance_from_trend": -0.165477, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.047115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.664029, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.735047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028632, "excess_performance": -0.153063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165477, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101452, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.664029, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.849005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15735, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.492814, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.305073, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 311288, "relative_activity": 1.51468, "balance": 0.305073, "dry_up": 1.492387, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112026, "annualized_volatility": 0.412418, "from_high_reference": -0.329429, "from_low_reference": 0.519071 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 109.763333, "fair_value_reference": 55.047115, "structural_low": 85.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.100898, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.032886, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.144366, "worst_return": -0.150268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.253932, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.227518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.378521, "worst_return": -0.076019, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.302221, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.306631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.978873, "worst_return": 0.031099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.290441, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.172603, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.532582, "worst_return": 0.0483, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160063, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030657, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.143275, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123867, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.205172, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027068, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096639, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.712707, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.658321, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113074, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122605, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.84, "volume": 93575, "typical_volume": 161051.75, "trend": 27.952667, "fair_value": 29.70218, "relative_strength": -20.795165, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.716148, "energy": 47.431985, "activity_lines": [ 25.958666, 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112.04, 115.430477, 113.516344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 104.400002, "volume": 260958, "typical_volume": 191316.85, "trend": 109.293333, "fair_value": 54.202628, "relative_strength": -0.877309, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.338662, "energy": 51.305286, "activity_lines": [ 105.253334, 109.934546, 114.391429, 113.240216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.699997, "volume": 442537, "typical_volume": 201769.1, "trend": 109.56, "fair_value": 54.626346, "relative_strength": -12.917381, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.53752, "energy": 64.423948, "activity_lines": [ 100.42, 105.949091, 112.240953, 112.169678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.599998, "volume": 311288, "typical_volume": 205514.1, "trend": 109.763333, "fair_value": 55.047115, "relative_strength": -15.735047, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.604022, "energy": 69.314858, "activity_lines": [ 96.546666, 102.438181, 110.046191, 111.010968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }