{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8abe5dd9-f7bb-4616-bcce-434f3dd51f86", "symbol": "PAGS34", "name": "PagSeguro Digital Ltd.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.889, "architecture_energy": 14.733, "architecture_maturity": 52.255, "architecture_confidence": 63.337, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.08, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 19.25, "deceleration": 41.22, "rotation_down": 25.56, "downward_expansion": 53.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.433333, 9.364545, 9.415187, 9.608282 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.33, "trend_reference": 9.944587, "distance_from_trend": -0.061801, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.781447, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046153, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.418469, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.155913, "excess_performance": -0.098865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061801, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030577, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046153, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053761, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094185, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054359, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.155913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.678664, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 641134, "relative_activity": 0.902607, "balance": 0.678664, "dry_up": 0.575918, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074285, "annualized_volatility": 0.350824, "from_high_reference": -0.248743, "from_low_reference": 0.095789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.944587, "fair_value_reference": 9.781447, "structural_low": 8.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.021649, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.014877, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.372549, "worst_return": -0.138514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035267, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.026603, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.146602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.219632, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.064679, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.563063, "worst_return": -0.116505, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-35.934511, "energy": 19.660188, "activity_lines": [ 9.334, 9.244909, 9.461501, 9.713789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.35, "volume": 396482, "typical_volume": 744491.5, "trend": 9.997907, "fair_value": 9.775134, "relative_strength": -10.486705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.755657, "energy": 18.209373, "activity_lines": [ 9.364, 9.272182, 9.433018, 9.669821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.7, "volume": 164988, "typical_volume": 697256.75, "trend": 9.985941, "fair_value": 9.777135, "relative_strength": -9.014181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.708291, "energy": 14.299934, "activity_lines": [ 9.479333, 9.357091, 9.441844, 9.650601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.33, "volume": 641134, "typical_volume": 710313.45, "trend": 9.944587, "fair_value": 9.781447, "relative_strength": -9.418469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.888694, "energy": 14.73265, "activity_lines": [ 9.433333, 9.364545, 9.415187, 9.608282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }