{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ac2a912-bc10-4efa-93b5-bcf32c4d2f13", "symbol": "VEDL", "name": "Vedanta Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.525, "architecture_energy": 88.69, "architecture_maturity": 67.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.787, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 59.55, "downward_expansion": 97.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 268.256667, 273.158181, 319.140477, 396.168553 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 278.850006, "trend_reference": 491.641333, "distance_from_trend": -0.432818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 391.458928, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.287665, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.838615, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.577517, "excess_performance": -0.533808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.432818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.287665, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.428386, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013031, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.577517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.479577, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66954025, "relative_activity": 0.768265, "balance": 1.479577, "dry_up": 0.688432, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075489, "annualized_volatility": 1.421233, "from_high_reference": -0.649245, "from_low_reference": 0.11674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 491.641333, "fair_value_reference": 391.458928, "structural_low": 249.699997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.02705, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.028989, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.223018, "worst_return": -0.224475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.131975, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.085154, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.40967, "worst_return": 0.088447, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.248053, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.170147, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.58469, "worst_return": 0.171104, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 66954025, "typical_volume": 87149646.55, "trend": 491.641333, "fair_value": 391.458928, "relative_strength": -42.838615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.525333, "energy": 88.690374, "activity_lines": [ 268.256667, 273.158181, 319.140477, 396.168553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }