{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ac4f064-ee0e-4d98-b9c7-9088dbc36cc8", "symbol": "9802", "name": "Fulgent Sun International (Holding) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.089, "architecture_energy": 50.786, "architecture_maturity": 64.345, "architecture_confidence": 91.356, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.94, "rotation_up": 17.8, "upward_expansion": 8.37, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 61.84, "downward_expansion": 84.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.639999, 72.714545, 74.275238, 76.151693 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 71.599998, "trend_reference": 79.93857, "distance_from_trend": -0.104312, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 103.867489, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.31066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.901467, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.217622, "excess_performance": -0.658994, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104312, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113118, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.31066, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017611, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.449015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03202, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217622, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.838669, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5338960, "relative_activity": 1.166248, "balance": 0.838669, "dry_up": 0.959829, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062419, "annualized_volatility": 0.256128, "from_high_reference": -0.37074, "from_low_reference": 0.043732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.93857, "fair_value_reference": 103.867489, "structural_low": 68.599998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.021109, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.039461, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.171674, "worst_return": -0.151235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.013173, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.083551, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.172749, "worst_return": -0.129822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.093017, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.150997, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.23477, "worst_return": -0.2413, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 4567879.45, "trend": 81.889285, "fair_value": 104.296622, "relative_strength": -42.452041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.741262, "energy": 40.907164, "activity_lines": [ 73.173334, 74.138182, 75.258571, 77.512628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.099998, "volume": 5529085, "typical_volume": 4535161.5, "trend": 80.905206, "fair_value": 104.08, "relative_strength": -45.111855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.586438, "energy": 52.091666, "activity_lines": [ 72.013333, 73.258182, 74.67, 76.752029 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 71.599998, "volume": 5338960, "typical_volume": 4577893.85, "trend": 79.93857, "fair_value": 103.867489, "relative_strength": -44.901467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.089404, "energy": 50.786142, "activity_lines": [ 71.639999, 72.714545, 74.275238, 76.151693 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }