{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ac69906-ce89-4966-9f04-eb9813ce9d5c", "symbol": "HEMA", "name": "HSBC MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.995, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.562, "architecture_energy": 25.146, "architecture_maturity": 65.435, "architecture_confidence": 88.795, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.28, "rotation_up": 18.25, "upward_expansion": 52.66, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 35.96, "downward_expansion": 18.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.734, 15.988181, 15.929428, 15.549118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.89, "trend_reference": 15.055333, "distance_from_trend": 0.05544, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.599164, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.369926, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.931112, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133381, "excess_performance": 0.08007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05544, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077356, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.369926, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059311, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133381, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.919929, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27135, "relative_activity": 0.547505, "balance": 0.919929, "dry_up": 1.311888, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041148, "annualized_volatility": 0.224623, "from_high_reference": -0.071303, "from_low_reference": 0.371009 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.055333, "fair_value_reference": 11.599164, "structural_low": 13.15, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023904, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060998, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078246, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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15.831047, 15.391225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.69, "volume": 37066, "typical_volume": 51570.1, "trend": 14.900666, "fair_value": 11.518587, "relative_strength": 9.630623, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.655737, "energy": 23.415198, "activity_lines": [ 15.932666, 16.162909, 15.870809, 15.44843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.55, "volume": 113942, "typical_volume": 51190.5, "trend": 14.978666, "fair_value": 11.557049, "relative_strength": 6.555546, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.709889, "energy": 24.780633, "activity_lines": [ 15.746, 16.041818, 15.888095, 15.490322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.89, "volume": 27135, "typical_volume": 49561.2, "trend": 15.055333, "fair_value": 11.599164, "relative_strength": 5.931112, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.56242, "energy": 25.146352, "activity_lines": [ 15.734, 15.988181, 15.929428, 15.549118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }