{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ac7bcbc-05a0-46da-80e9-7a9f474e5f73", "symbol": "APZ", "name": "Aspen Group", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.073, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.294, "architecture_energy": 7.496, "architecture_maturity": 31.653, "architecture_confidence": 58.241, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.29, "rotation_up": 22.53, "upward_expansion": 23.53, "deceleration": 56.6, "rotation_down": 34.34, "downward_expansion": 55.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.089333, 5.100756, 5.004835, 5.023267 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.27, "trend_reference": 5.103646, "distance_from_trend": 0.032595, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.129363, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.684049, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.346071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039448, "excess_performance": -0.024258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032595, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018207, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.684049, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019729, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003461, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036558, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039448, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.578096, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1303680, "relative_activity": 0.63272, "balance": 0.578096, "dry_up": 1.16018, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0648, "annualized_volatility": 0.408742, "from_high_reference": -0.180404, "from_low_reference": 0.393339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.103646, "fair_value_reference": 3.129363, "structural_low": 4.146354, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.008982, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.006543, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.134329, "worst_return": -0.064115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.040498, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.037027, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.322877, "worst_return": -0.026199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.157577, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.099995, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.407918, "worst_return": -0.023385, 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.213328, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095833, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004099, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", 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after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.289006, "energy": 33.050474, "activity_lines": [ 5.198868, 5.055619, 4.972823, 5.04951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.94, "volume": 5668153, "typical_volume": 3247116.9, "trend": 5.153812, "fair_value": 3.062407, "relative_strength": -0.485112, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.826317, "energy": 20.149657, "activity_lines": [ 5.121688, 5.051267, 4.963969, 5.034628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.89, "volume": 1622400, "typical_volume": 3035833.1, "trend": 5.132979, "fair_value": 3.083529, "relative_strength": -1.612657, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.518841, "energy": 13.208291, "activity_lines": [ 5.031667, 5.036188, 4.956543, 5.017608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.07, "volume": 967677, "typical_volume": 2610785.85, "trend": 5.119313, "fair_value": 3.105805, "relative_strength": -0.673674, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.46318, "energy": 13.682319, "activity_lines": [ 5.022, 5.053472, 4.971022, 5.013545 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.27, "volume": 1303680, "typical_volume": 2060437.25, "trend": 5.103646, "fair_value": 3.129363, "relative_strength": -0.346071, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.294042, "energy": 7.496434, "activity_lines": [ 5.089333, 5.100756, 5.004835, 5.023267 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }