{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8aca361b-8922-4ecd-b085-d33b42cf1b28", "symbol": "PPY", "name": "Papyrus Australia Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.788, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.737, "architecture_energy": 58.233, "architecture_maturity": 16.075, "architecture_confidence": 93.305, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.88, "rotation_up": 13.09, "upward_expansion": 12.22, "deceleration": 39.47, "rotation_down": 66.27, "downward_expansion": 87.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.008533, 0.008891, 0.010071, 0.010269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.009, "trend_reference": 0.0106, "distance_from_trend": -0.150943, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.01291, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.30288, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.60137, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.1, "excess_performance": -0.163706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150943, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019231, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.30288, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281374, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.49399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.050526, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 301094, "relative_activity": 0.155525, "balance": 0.050526, "dry_up": 0.899838, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.196581, "annualized_volatility": 0.973357, "from_high_reference": -0.823529, "from_low_reference": 0.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0106, "fair_value_reference": 0.01291, "structural_low": 0.007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.024414, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.923077, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.067854, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 1.4, "worst_return": -0.3125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.182452, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 2.25, "worst_return": -0.47619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033019, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060434, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.65, "worst_return": -0.566667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.388889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.357143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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0.013295, "relative_strength": -12.265996, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.662006, "energy": 42.708812, "activity_lines": [ 0.009133, 0.009927, 0.010724, 0.010718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.008, "volume": 4602408, "typical_volume": 1875817.25, "trend": 0.010667, "fair_value": 0.013154, "relative_strength": -21.48415, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.709431, "energy": 60.452449, "activity_lines": [ 0.008667, 0.009418, 0.010471, 0.010546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.008, "volume": 1633779, "typical_volume": 1925506.0, "trend": 0.010633, "fair_value": 0.013026, "relative_strength": -23.084551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.246325, "energy": 68.56276, "activity_lines": [ 0.0084, 0.009018, 0.010224, 0.010374 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.009, "volume": 301094, "typical_volume": 1935981.5, "trend": 0.0106, "fair_value": 0.01291, "relative_strength": -15.60137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.737053, "energy": 58.233439, "activity_lines": [ 0.008533, 0.008891, 0.010071, 0.010269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }