{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8acdf55c-94f2-4591-a71d-b193d304acda", "symbol": "UREKA", "name": "Eureka Design Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.385, "architecture_energy": 22.961, "architecture_maturity": 67.737, "architecture_confidence": 79.006, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.98, "rotation_up": 22.94, "upward_expansion": 55.79, "deceleration": 91.12, "rotation_down": 33.52, "downward_expansion": 21.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.398667, 0.416364, 0.395333, 0.374237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.4, "trend_reference": 0.352667, "distance_from_trend": 0.134216, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.550645, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.27358, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.75941, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.290323, "excess_performance": 0.097998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.134216, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071935, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.27358, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210779, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.29852, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.290323, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.970725, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37335100, "relative_activity": 1.015633, "balance": 4.970725, "dry_up": 0.860785, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128846, "annualized_volatility": 0.587751, "from_high_reference": -0.344262, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.352667, "fair_value_reference": 0.550645, "structural_low": 0.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.024653, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.055893, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.086177, "worst_return": -0.310811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.192227, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.233611, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.097561, "worst_return": -0.36194, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.389917, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.389675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.353659, "worst_return": -0.426174, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075949, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.170732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.247423, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.438596, 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0.354258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.45, "volume": 180866300, "typical_volume": 34605445.0, "trend": 0.346, "fair_value": 0.560709, "relative_strength": -4.438782, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.289074, "energy": 77.196467, "activity_lines": [ 0.448, 0.424545, 0.378857, 0.36114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.44, "volume": 29766500, "typical_volume": 35210635.0, "trend": 0.349, "fair_value": 0.558273, "relative_strength": -6.345893, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.498924, "energy": 55.986561, "activity_lines": [ 0.444667, 0.432545, 0.387524, 0.367204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.39, "volume": 46773500, "typical_volume": 36214345.0, "trend": 0.350667, "fair_value": 0.555517, "relative_strength": -15.967527, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.880476, "energy": 37.811961, "activity_lines": [ 0.426667, 0.428909, 0.390952, 0.369849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.37, "volume": 12696200, "typical_volume": 36133290.0, "trend": 0.351333, "fair_value": 0.552889, "relative_strength": -18.082414, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.997665, "energy": 23.698594, "activity_lines": [ 0.404667, 0.420364, 0.391952, 0.371097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4, "volume": 37335100, "typical_volume": 36760435.0, "trend": 0.352667, "fair_value": 0.550645, "relative_strength": -9.75941, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.38496, "energy": 22.961135, "activity_lines": [ 0.398667, 0.416364, 0.395333, 0.374237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }