{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ad461a6-4145-4c55-a917-90beabf29233", "symbol": "DMAC", "name": "DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.151, "architecture_energy": 9.965, "architecture_maturity": 19.018, "architecture_confidence": 57.029, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.24, "rotation_up": 24.0, "upward_expansion": 23.7, "deceleration": 56.57, "rotation_down": 31.56, "downward_expansion": 53.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.772333, 6.806364, 6.547905, 6.645172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.75, "trend_reference": 6.930667, "distance_from_trend": -0.026068, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.834968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.39608, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.552292, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.170762, "excess_performance": -0.358215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026068, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058738, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.39608, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013555, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165523, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011131, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170762, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.432904, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 651381, "relative_activity": 0.684568, "balance": 1.432904, "dry_up": 0.902635, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122531, "annualized_volatility": 0.463391, "from_high_reference": -0.352176, "from_low_reference": 0.537585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.930667, "fair_value_reference": 4.834968, "structural_low": 5.245, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.08377, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.036262, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.938272, "worst_return": -0.179487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.326384, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.261738, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.3625, "worst_return": 0.025806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 1.096561, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.978582, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.741935, "worst_return": -0.127273, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.83871, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.301524, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.249123, "worst_return": 0.538835, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.154079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.379781, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.463592, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.160393, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131965, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.455312, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070615, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107591, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067747, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23301, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.87, "volume": 460846, "typical_volume": 605373.4, "trend": 2.387667, "fair_value": 3.898816, "relative_strength": 29.501132, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.862779, "energy": 25.798246, "activity_lines": [ 7.055333, 6.561091, 6.44781, 6.715086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.3, "volume": 941793, "typical_volume": 992494.85, "trend": 7.0805, "fair_value": 4.764359, "relative_strength": -5.537222, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.496693, "energy": 34.395489, "activity_lines": [ 7.266, 6.738182, 6.516476, 6.72671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.735, "volume": 862541, "typical_volume": 990468.4, "trend": 7.030667, "fair_value": 4.786186, "relative_strength": -11.571329, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.921861, "energy": 31.659635, "activity_lines": [ 7.178333, 6.794727, 6.534429, 6.704419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.34, "volume": 979791, "typical_volume": 986700.85, "trend": 6.977667, "fair_value": 4.809647, "relative_strength": -17.461963, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.390268, "energy": 16.610559, "activity_lines": [ 6.9, 6.767182, 6.519405, 6.65986 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.75, "volume": 651381, "typical_volume": 951521.05, "trend": 6.930667, "fair_value": 4.834968, "relative_strength": -16.552292, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.150899, "energy": 9.964946, "activity_lines": [ 6.772333, 6.806364, 6.547905, 6.645172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }