{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ad4a777-af77-41f3-9af8-60c89f9775e6", "symbol": "U15S", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI US Liquid Corp 1-5 Sustainable UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 69.683, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.419, "architecture_energy": 34.188, "architecture_maturity": 57.426, "architecture_confidence": 78.141, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.22, "rotation_up": 30.53, "upward_expansion": 63.56, "deceleration": 91.1, "rotation_down": 27.45, "downward_expansion": 18.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.588133, 11.609455, 11.54621, 11.505299 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.54, "trend_reference": 11.447733, "distance_from_trend": 0.00806, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.248092, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025952, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.444801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024503, "excess_performance": -0.146389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00806, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007794, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025952, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011836, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012786, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024503, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.751899, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14925, "relative_activity": 0.944202, "balance": 6.751899, "dry_up": 0.453597, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006372, "annualized_volatility": 0.047474, "from_high_reference": -0.124052, "from_low_reference": 0.043022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.447733, "fair_value_reference": 11.248092, "structural_low": 11.192, "invalidation": "A 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"close": 11.646, "volume": 1595, "typical_volume": 15651.1, "trend": 11.408533, "fair_value": 11.215681, "relative_strength": -12.221403, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.985604, "energy": 87.89445, "activity_lines": [ 11.648667, 11.580291, 11.500752, 11.460632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.65, "volume": 4108, "typical_volume": 15480.8, "trend": 11.420333, "fair_value": 11.224489, "relative_strength": -10.613483, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.574649, "energy": 86.894946, "activity_lines": [ 11.656667, 11.604218, 11.51839, 11.476211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.656, "volume": 3939, "typical_volume": 15478.05, "trend": 11.433933, "fair_value": 11.233335, "relative_strength": -10.121479, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.511642, "energy": 81.340974, "activity_lines": [ 11.6572, 11.623091, 11.535067, 11.491415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.552, "volume": 5708, "typical_volume": 15430.55, "trend": 11.442867, "fair_value": 11.240951, "relative_strength": -11.150177, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.045533, "energy": 50.145339, "activity_lines": [ 11.619333, 11.618509, 11.54119, 11.499032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.54, "volume": 14925, "typical_volume": 15807.0, "trend": 11.447733, "fair_value": 11.248092, "relative_strength": -13.444801, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.41854, "energy": 34.187637, "activity_lines": [ 11.588133, 11.609455, 11.54621, 11.505299 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }