{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ad5a964-8891-4357-9887-9a675826910c", "symbol": "MAP", "name": "Mapfre, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.921, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.641, "architecture_energy": 57.081, "architecture_maturity": 48.664, "architecture_confidence": 73.685, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.43, "rotation_up": 61.01, "upward_expansion": 85.26, "deceleration": 62.91, "rotation_down": 22.57, "downward_expansion": 9.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.4128, 4.378255, 4.254558, 4.141822 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.42, "trend_reference": 4.017872, "distance_from_trend": 0.100085, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.794407, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.581731, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.084546, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.145648, "excess_performance": 0.021217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100085, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027743, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.581731, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004224, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040845, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022632, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145648, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.627908, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10351028, "relative_activity": 1.082632, "balance": 0.627908, "dry_up": 1.168667, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034865, "annualized_volatility": 0.218924, "from_high_reference": -0.042461, "from_low_reference": 0.289504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.017872, "fair_value_reference": 2.794407, "structural_low": 3.427674, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.014725, "positive_rate": 0.634146, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": 0.007151, "regime_survival": 0.756098, "best_return": 0.198489, "worst_return": -0.093515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.068389, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.023709, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.205742, "worst_return": -0.106777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.114867, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.045205, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.362894, "worst_return": -0.060286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.434, "volume": 10789482, "typical_volume": 9744916.8, "trend": 4.008035, "fair_value": 2.776337, "relative_strength": -2.038715, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.002396, "energy": 63.220743, "activity_lines": [ 4.411333, 4.350764, 4.224365, 4.115244 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.42, "volume": 10351028, "typical_volume": 9560984.35, "trend": 4.017872, "fair_value": 2.794407, "relative_strength": -4.084546, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.640817, "energy": 57.080963, "activity_lines": [ 4.4128, 4.378255, 4.254558, 4.141822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }