{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8adcfc14-52c2-41c9-989d-f7ea6a9a8f79",
    "symbol": "MXUD",
    "name": "Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF Inc",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 91.42,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 88.849,
    "architecture_energy": 68.017,
    "architecture_maturity": 53.223,
    "architecture_confidence": 86.729,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 21.24,
        "rotation_up": 59.72,
        "upward_expansion": 84.45,
        "deceleration": 61.81,
        "rotation_down": 26.98,
        "downward_expansion": 11.12
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        101.373335,
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        97.724689
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 104.080002,
    "trend_reference": 95.485646,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.090007,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 78.144478,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.331892,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.120874,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.141798,
    "excess_performance": 0.058915,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.090007,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.03436,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.331892,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007341,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011209,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.069401,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.141798,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 17.252384,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 61553,
      "relative_activity": 6.624764,
      "balance": 17.252384,
      "dry_up": 1.840637,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.017198,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.139793,
      "from_high_reference": -0.001918,
      "from_low_reference": 0.224124
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 95.485646,
      "fair_value_reference": 78.144478,
      "structural_low": 85.418512,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 41,
        "median_return": 0.012028,
        "positive_rate": 0.658537,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.658537,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00559,
        "regime_survival": 0.756098,
        "best_return": 0.062919,
        "worst_return": -0.092346,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.034787,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
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        "worst_return": -0.056641,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "worst_return": -0.172424,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.11298,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "relative_strength": 4.402065,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "relative_strength": 8.06094,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "relative_strength": 5.674835,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": 6.983702,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "fair_value": 75.958164,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 79.020391,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "trend": 93.657607,
        "fair_value": 76.50102,
        "relative_strength": -2.548126,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 53.208113,
        "energy": 55.782471,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 240,
        "typical_volume": 5836.25,
        "trend": 93.952124,
        "fair_value": 76.781109,
        "relative_strength": -1.564006,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 5924.1,
        "trend": 94.29626,
        "fair_value": 77.056259,
        "relative_strength": 0.381204,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.315324,
        "energy": 63.154921,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 99.919998,
        "volume": 1834,
        "typical_volume": 6015.8,
        "trend": 94.589771,
        "fair_value": 77.320057,
        "relative_strength": -1.651567,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.2854,
        "energy": 57.53857,
        "activity_lines": [
          100.114667,
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          98.282861,
          96.485916
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 99.5,
        "volume": 2416,
        "typical_volume": 6100.15,
        "trend": 94.84111,
        "fair_value": 77.578268,
        "relative_strength": -1.912169,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.656232,
        "energy": 57.103201,
        "activity_lines": [
          99.980667,
          99.958479,
          98.628532,
          96.802705
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 100.160004,
        "volume": 2605,
        "typical_volume": 6217.6,
        "trend": 95.108154,
        "fair_value": 77.846069,
        "relative_strength": -1.337346,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.944105,
        "energy": 52.271494,
        "activity_lines": [
          100.102668,
          99.974487,
          98.999924,
          97.14586
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 104.080002,
        "volume": 61553,
        "typical_volume": 9291.35,
        "trend": 95.485646,
        "fair_value": 78.144478,
        "relative_strength": 1.120874,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.848612,
        "energy": 68.016571,
        "activity_lines": [
          101.373335,
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          99.690832,
          97.724689
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}