{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ae334cb-e592-4829-bcfa-1dd782e92c59", "symbol": "TNITY", "name": "Trinity Watthana Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 80.17, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.288, "architecture_energy": 42.403, "architecture_maturity": 18.125, "architecture_confidence": 84.771, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.49, "rotation_up": 69.65, "upward_expansion": 42.02, "deceleration": 40.51, "rotation_down": 16.71, "downward_expansion": 19.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.744, 2.629455, 2.620762, 2.63914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.86, "trend_reference": 2.652667, "distance_from_trend": 0.07816, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.524872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188623, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.973959, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.181818, "excess_performance": -0.010507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07816, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059372, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.188623, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057924, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01974, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041892, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181818, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.822289, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 720700, "relative_activity": 1.596783, "balance": 3.822289, "dry_up": 2.346431, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046799, "annualized_volatility": 0.399069, "from_high_reference": -0.083333, "from_low_reference": 0.444444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.652667, "fair_value_reference": 3.524872, "structural_low": 2.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.030973, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048374, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.193548, "worst_return": -0.299145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.282051, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.20162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035714, "worst_return": -0.358407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.276042, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.207662, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.009756, "worst_return": -0.402655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.723988, "energy": 57.564585, "activity_lines": [ 2.450667, 2.502909, 2.606667, 2.615914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.46, "volume": 371000, "typical_volume": 296800.0, "trend": 2.575333, "fair_value": 3.57359, "relative_strength": -18.121439, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.442175, "energy": 48.537679, "activity_lines": [ 2.452, 2.482545, 2.587048, 2.60929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.5, "volume": 726800, "typical_volume": 316255.0, "trend": 2.590667, "fair_value": 3.560256, "relative_strength": -17.050353, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.472569, "energy": 38.805954, "activity_lines": [ 2.469333, 2.476364, 2.57381, 2.60443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.68, "volume": 2210100, "typical_volume": 405300.0, "trend": 2.612, "fair_value": 3.547179, "relative_strength": -10.642528, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.993245, "energy": 15.990865, "activity_lines": [ 2.54, 2.508, 2.57981, 2.610194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.84, "volume": 578600, "typical_volume": 416640.0, "trend": 2.639333, "fair_value": 3.534744, "relative_strength": -3.696186, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.418271, "energy": 26.35504, "activity_lines": [ 2.652, 2.569091, 2.60019, 2.624903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.86, "volume": 720700, "typical_volume": 451345.0, "trend": 2.652667, "fair_value": 3.524872, "relative_strength": -1.973959, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.288143, "energy": 42.403306, "activity_lines": [ 2.744, 2.629455, 2.620762, 2.63914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }