{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ae79087-ede1-48bf-bb7d-8fa7675efdc7", "symbol": "CEBR3", "name": "Companhia Energ\u00e9tica de Bras\u00edlia - CEB", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.883, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.096, "architecture_energy": 81.584, "architecture_maturity": 26.752, "architecture_confidence": 94.836, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.89, "rotation_up": 23.53, "upward_expansion": 20.14, "deceleration": 38.22, "rotation_down": 63.33, "downward_expansion": 95.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.069564, 24.528711, 26.238099, 27.462273 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.0, "trend_reference": 28.589049, "distance_from_trend": -0.160518, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.364337, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306881, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.411938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.195464, "excess_performance": -0.138416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160518, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002183, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306881, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.43058, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104119, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184293, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195464, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482787, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46400, "relative_activity": 1.719792, "balance": 0.482787, "dry_up": 1.946812, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055888, "annualized_volatility": 0.279473, "from_high_reference": -0.316819, "from_low_reference": 0.462891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.589049, "fair_value_reference": 18.364337, "structural_low": 23.147811, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.007015, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.026586, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.206179, "worst_return": -0.147287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.043346, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006068, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.262391, "worst_return": -0.231516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.090058, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.007035, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.029873, "worst_return": -0.104295, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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28.689395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.378138, "volume": 103000, "typical_volume": 23955.0, "trend": 28.83765, "fair_value": 18.078805, "relative_strength": -12.872977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.811293, "energy": 91.589209, "activity_lines": [ 24.365983, 25.402512, 27.480205, 28.332872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.950001, "volume": 38600, "typical_volume": 25230.0, "trend": 28.792053, "fair_value": 18.178232, "relative_strength": -7.400983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.113629, "energy": 85.063381, "activity_lines": [ 24.428004, 25.17179, 27.100382, 28.082056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.889999, "volume": 22100, "typical_volume": 25245.0, "trend": 28.704582, "fair_value": 18.271857, "relative_strength": -13.385808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.937797, "energy": 86.642829, "activity_lines": [ 24.164979, 24.801069, 26.647988, 27.765795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.0, "volume": 46400, "typical_volume": 26980.0, "trend": 28.589049, "fair_value": 18.364337, "relative_strength": -10.411938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.095559, "energy": 81.583631, "activity_lines": [ 24.069564, 24.528711, 26.238099, 27.462273 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }