{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8aee7778-fa27-4577-816b-b9cab4d8c9de", "symbol": "ESABINDIA", "name": "ESAB India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.336, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.303, "architecture_energy": 36.415, "architecture_maturity": 3.973, "architecture_confidence": 58.336, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.69, "rotation_up": 17.47, "upward_expansion": 21.33, "deceleration": 53.46, "rotation_down": 60.28, "downward_expansion": 51.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5640.15625, 5685.001154, 5891.665281, 5847.118368 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5631.5, "trend_reference": 5773.891699, "distance_from_trend": -0.024661, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5430.114846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037087, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.35811, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006362, "excess_performance": 0.037347, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024661, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000731, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037087, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013581, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318705, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006362, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754657, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11117, "relative_activity": 0.483067, "balance": 0.754657, "dry_up": 0.586779, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058823, "annualized_volatility": 0.31108, "from_high_reference": -0.230617, "from_low_reference": 0.206686 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5773.891699, "fair_value_reference": 5430.114846, "structural_low": 4901.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.109489, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.085445, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.211962, "worst_return": -0.01721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.118214, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.044458, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.201202, "worst_return": 0.055159, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.438818, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.307563, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.47004, "worst_return": 0.204304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040701, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09507, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037853, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093437, 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5896.878623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5719.185547, "volume": 11194, "typical_volume": 22512.25, "trend": 5821.983415, "fair_value": 5402.445253, "relative_strength": 5.145677, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.859537, "energy": 23.005678, "activity_lines": [ 5758.272949, 5950.684943, 5983.698219, 5889.28493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5628.579102, "volume": 8493, "typical_volume": 22490.75, "trend": 5805.319857, "fair_value": 5410.411396, "relative_strength": 2.830416, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.922185, "energy": 25.106807, "activity_lines": [ 5714.771615, 5850.29177, 5961.45425, 5876.807233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5649.5, "volume": 24238, "typical_volume": 23188.0, "trend": 5791.427686, "fair_value": 5417.034577, "relative_strength": 5.463303, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.543293, "energy": 22.789428, "activity_lines": [ 5684.871973, 5777.473686, 5940.616657, 5866.754339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5630.0, "volume": 10167, "typical_volume": 23041.65, "trend": 5774.429867, "fair_value": 5424.050575, "relative_strength": 2.266739, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.523944, "energy": 27.632508, "activity_lines": [ 5658.760221, 5718.164693, 5916.655255, 5856.339649 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5631.5, "volume": 11117, "typical_volume": 23013.35, "trend": 5773.891699, "fair_value": 5430.114846, "relative_strength": 1.35811, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.302519, "energy": 36.415458, "activity_lines": [ 5640.15625, 5685.001154, 5891.665281, 5847.118368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }