{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8aef53a3-9417-4038-8cbc-92961d95e1a5", "symbol": "BIDU", "name": "Baidu Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.735, "architecture_energy": 38.52, "architecture_maturity": 23.411, "architecture_confidence": 95.615, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.91, "rotation_up": 17.63, "upward_expansion": 4.73, "deceleration": 48.09, "rotation_down": 49.91, "downward_expansion": 73.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 109.401333, 110.318727, 116.075, 118.554065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 109.71, "trend_reference": 124.336667, "distance_from_trend": -0.117638, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 106.544712, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029709, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.907848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.248201, "excess_performance": -0.435655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117638, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03749, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029709, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270743, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.248201, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.426877, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8820077, "relative_activity": 0.802958, "balance": 0.426877, "dry_up": 0.948169, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109928, "annualized_volatility": 0.46544, "from_high_reference": -0.336298, "from_low_reference": 0.296196 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 124.336667, "fair_value_reference": 106.544712, "structural_low": 100.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.026718, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.001666, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.363535, "worst_return": -0.141011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.054044, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.084618, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.385781, "worst_return": -0.149766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033576, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.087949, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.283777, "worst_return": -0.154554, "sufficient": true 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11476983.85, "trend": 127.419333, "fair_value": 107.284263, "relative_strength": -20.643972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.752443, "energy": 52.660417, "activity_lines": [ 111.094667, 114.527273, 119.056286, 122.005312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.34, "volume": 6899062, "typical_volume": 11171076.75, "trend": 126.770667, "fair_value": 106.963622, "relative_strength": -20.73083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.210244, "energy": 40.625314, "activity_lines": [ 109.271333, 112.045273, 117.676524, 120.580839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.11, "volume": 11236868, "typical_volume": 11086529.45, "trend": 125.464333, "fair_value": 106.725481, "relative_strength": -16.890442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.634778, "energy": 34.888636, "activity_lines": [ 109.799333, 111.157636, 116.911571, 119.570473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.71, "volume": 8820077, "typical_volume": 10984475.1, "trend": 124.336667, "fair_value": 106.544712, "relative_strength": -21.907848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.735169, "energy": 38.520255, "activity_lines": [ 109.401333, 110.318727, 116.075, 118.554065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }