{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8aef80cf-61cb-4ec9-b87f-2599f9639688",
    "symbol": "AMAG",
    "name": "AMAG Austria Metall AG",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 42.256,
    "architecture_energy": 26.132,
    "architecture_maturity": 30.419,
    "architecture_confidence": 39.257,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.62,
        "rotation_up": 51.69,
        "upward_expansion": 64.14,
        "deceleration": 63.5,
        "rotation_down": 13.55,
        "downward_expansion": 9.81
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        27.733334,
        27.543637,
        27.656278,
        27.587316
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 28.0,
    "trend_reference": 27.321765,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.024824,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 24.493599,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143156,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.096932,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.09166,
    "excess_performance": -0.082587,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.024824,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050999,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.143156,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007062,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.110969,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.076808,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.09166,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.757076,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2463,
      "relative_activity": 0.495983,
      "balance": 0.757076,
      "dry_up": 0.965938,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.025,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.259524,
      "from_high_reference": -0.063545,
      "from_low_reference": 0.22173
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 27.321765,
      "fair_value_reference": 24.493599,
      "structural_low": 25.25891,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.008264,
        "positive_rate": 0.615385,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010368,
        "regime_survival": 0.461538,
        "best_return": 0.063358,
        "worst_return": -0.115108,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.008264,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.0705,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.064935,
        "worst_return": -0.102564,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.051948,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.027615,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.048,
        "worst_return": -0.053425,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.12254,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.136744,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.148426,
        "worst_return": -0.181967,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-04-12",
        "end": "2024-05-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.026718,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.042969,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.028926,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-04-18",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 11639.9,
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        "fair_value": 24.633874,
        "relative_strength": -2.989047,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 10828.7,
        "trend": 25.696237,
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        "relative_strength": -3.433795,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 10781.25,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "relative_strength": -7.649945,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 896,
        "typical_volume": 9598.15,
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        "relative_strength": -6.355195,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 9102.35,
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        "fair_value": 24.534798,
        "relative_strength": -9.903445,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 106,
        "typical_volume": 8567.55,
        "trend": 26.525626,
        "fair_value": 24.506274,
        "relative_strength": -13.050031,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 6.544514,
        "energy": 11.033778,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 27.4,
        "volume": 125,
        "typical_volume": 7977.25,
        "trend": 26.65226,
        "fair_value": 24.499197,
        "relative_strength": -13.508812,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 11.83923,
        "energy": 15.233358,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 27.0,
        "volume": 3147,
        "typical_volume": 7466.1,
        "trend": 26.778564,
        "fair_value": 24.490118,
        "relative_strength": -13.311122,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 0.275991,
        "energy": 15.2611,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 27.299999,
        "volume": 1675,
        "typical_volume": 6717.35,
        "trend": 26.898613,
        "fair_value": 24.488022,
        "relative_strength": -10.35438,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.787719,
        "energy": 16.118716,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.206666,
          27.394545,
          27.588383,
          27.438853
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 27.200001,
        "volume": 3208,
        "typical_volume": 5571.25,
        "trend": 27.025082,
        "fair_value": 24.485285,
        "relative_strength": -11.620788,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.942512,
        "energy": 21.717049,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.2,
          27.325455,
          27.556652,
          27.458297
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 28.200001,
        "volume": 11841,
        "typical_volume": 5414.4,
        "trend": 27.175132,
        "fair_value": 24.488959,
        "relative_strength": -8.05615,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.702949,
        "energy": 17.905758,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.54,
          27.454546,
          27.62067,
          27.534099
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 28.0,
        "volume": 2463,
        "typical_volume": 4965.9,
        "trend": 27.321765,
        "fair_value": 24.493599,
        "relative_strength": -11.096932,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.256438,
        "energy": 26.132475,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.733334,
          27.543637,
          27.656278,
          27.587316
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}