{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8afa3206-02dc-42c3-8e93-090365093c5d", "symbol": "CBLL", "name": "CeriBell, Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.003, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.142, "architecture_energy": 32.474, "architecture_maturity": 35.562, "architecture_confidence": 88.901, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.61, "rotation_up": 19.22, "upward_expansion": 9.01, "deceleration": 39.35, "rotation_down": 51.8, "downward_expansion": 75.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.169333, 18.508, 18.694714, 18.817828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.81, "trend_reference": 19.184667, "distance_from_trend": -0.019529, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.07099, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.107691, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066501, "excess_performance": -0.253955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019529, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00188, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013685, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067273, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051077, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04259, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066501, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.855177, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1450670, "relative_activity": 0.935283, "balance": 0.855177, "dry_up": 1.109116, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109465, "annualized_volatility": 0.521515, "from_high_reference": -0.22688, "from_low_reference": 0.733641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.184667, "fair_value_reference": 19.07099, "structural_low": 15.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.010336, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0086, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.133129, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.116564, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.188199, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.116564, "worst_return": -0.116564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.717091, "energy": 13.598602, "activity_lines": [ 19.364667, 18.956, 19.021143, 19.201548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.72, "volume": 1791554, "typical_volume": 1534758.8, "trend": 19.602, "fair_value": 19.111882, "relative_strength": -1.699313, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.6915, "energy": 15.924292, "activity_lines": [ 19.232, 18.949455, 19.002048, 19.139312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.91, "volume": 1813551, "typical_volume": 1541909.05, "trend": 19.455667, "fair_value": 19.088457, "relative_strength": -9.630146, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.789098, "energy": 24.885873, "activity_lines": [ 18.479333, 18.640727, 18.810333, 18.965634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.69, "volume": 1825397, "typical_volume": 1555618.95, "trend": 19.335333, "fair_value": 19.073737, "relative_strength": -5.984284, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.56665, "energy": 36.473949, "activity_lines": [ 18.061333, 18.462727, 18.697286, 18.85172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.81, "volume": 1450670, "typical_volume": 1551049.2, "trend": 19.184667, "fair_value": 19.07099, "relative_strength": -5.107691, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.14237, "energy": 32.473828, "activity_lines": [ 18.169333, 18.508, 18.694714, 18.817828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }