{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8afaedd7-e4ff-4c0c-ad5f-c318c09db751", "symbol": "300559", "name": "Chengdu Jiafaantai Education Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.85, "architecture_energy": 22.327, "architecture_maturity": 48.713, "architecture_confidence": 93.327, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.35, "rotation_up": 29.19, "upward_expansion": 17.12, "deceleration": 41.9, "rotation_down": 34.7, "downward_expansion": 67.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.186, 10.918273, 11.45775, 11.844476 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.49, "trend_reference": 12.274712, "distance_from_trend": -0.063929, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.208006, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.058814, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.473331, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.07189, "excess_performance": -0.07929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063929, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0273, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.058814, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077803, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134733, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07189, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.834912, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71950207, "relative_activity": 1.124433, "balance": 0.834912, "dry_up": 0.98226, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102655, "annualized_volatility": 0.450464, "from_high_reference": -0.333527, "from_low_reference": 0.162955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.274712, "fair_value_reference": 12.208006, "structural_low": 9.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.006824, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001862, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.51375, "worst_return": -0.105538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07078, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.04362, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.405694, "worst_return": -0.24273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.182048, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.236926, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.527877, "worst_return": -0.189563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.850906, "energy": 68.345188, "activity_lines": [ 10.677669, 11.236627, 12.109783, 12.317458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.35, "volume": 40282019, "typical_volume": 58848250.15, "trend": 12.401379, "fair_value": 12.306946, "relative_strength": -27.703115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.387557, "energy": 64.88235, "activity_lines": [ 10.532, 10.967797, 11.91111, 12.183025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.21, "volume": 49249490, "typical_volume": 60205997.9, "trend": 12.380379, "fair_value": 12.269349, "relative_strength": -21.156766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.480229, "energy": 66.150046, "activity_lines": [ 10.398667, 10.737648, 11.708817, 12.041646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.27, "volume": 67880504, "typical_volume": 61867576.15, "trend": 12.313712, "fair_value": 12.236696, "relative_strength": -20.515573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.994608, "energy": 65.307238, "activity_lines": [ 10.31, 10.567749, 11.522763, 11.905492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.19, "volume": 62331303, "typical_volume": 63579566.55, "trend": 12.312046, "fair_value": 12.221222, "relative_strength": -3.960021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.258136, "energy": 29.941447, "activity_lines": [ 10.922667, 10.801693, 11.525185, 11.897511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.49, "volume": 71950207, "typical_volume": 63988002.05, "trend": 12.274712, "fair_value": 12.208006, "relative_strength": -13.473331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.850205, "energy": 22.326649, "activity_lines": [ 11.186, 10.918273, 11.45775, 11.844476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }