{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b02b522-63fb-4569-9985-850a1b8de9e4", "symbol": "LFDR", "name": "Stone Ridge Durable Income ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.463, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.261, "architecture_energy": 78.512, "architecture_maturity": 8.273, "architecture_confidence": 78.448, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.49, "rotation_up": 8.53, "upward_expansion": 18.17, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 80.72, "downward_expansion": 96.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 178.612915, 180.473472, 181.594359, 182.520366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 178.5174, "trend_reference": 183.738558, "distance_from_trend": -0.028416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 182.124402, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019805, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.865468, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035874, "excess_performance": -0.161499, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007063, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019805, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138655, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027038, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035874, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.316279, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 371, "relative_activity": 4.966533, "balance": 1.316279, "dry_up": 1.750335, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014426, "annualized_volatility": 0.088363, "from_high_reference": -0.067543, "from_low_reference": 0.010185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 183.738558, "fair_value_reference": 182.124402, "structural_low": 176.717546, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 183.405513, "volume": 37, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 185.230444, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 186.534934, "volume": 22, "typical_volume": 54.25, "trend": 184.697151, "fair_value": 182.293512, "relative_strength": -6.478395, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.486476, "energy": 22.67759, "activity_lines": [ 184.719739, 183.503556, 183.765436, 184.278061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 183.069419, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 54.95, "trend": 184.627707, "fair_value": 182.303091, "relative_strength": -9.880991, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.219304, "energy": 23.679884, "activity_lines": [ 184.407083, 183.492396, 183.614128, 184.173046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 180.934378, "volume": 65, "typical_volume": 55.3, "trend": 184.535415, "fair_value": 182.2864, "relative_strength": -11.833338, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.954811, "energy": 23.637343, "activity_lines": [ 183.361385, 183.128581, 183.289037, 183.934767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 181.134444, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 57.15, "trend": 184.420916, "fair_value": 182.272521, "relative_strength": -10.089919, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.911192, "energy": 32.076271, "activity_lines": [ 182.46122, 182.833946, 183.020585, 183.715349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 178.844426, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 54.95, "trend": 184.211418, "fair_value": 182.23171, "relative_strength": -10.43914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.223149, "energy": 67.094622, "activity_lines": [ 180.949121, 182.168849, 182.583151, 183.355576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 176.717546, "volume": 52, "typical_volume": 56.8, "trend": 183.969279, "fair_value": 182.166838, "relative_strength": -12.093938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.963997, "energy": 83.21466, "activity_lines": [ 179.153796, 181.120074, 181.985399, 182.8721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 178.5174, "volume": 371, "typical_volume": 74.7, "trend": 183.738558, "fair_value": 182.124402, "relative_strength": -13.865468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.261326, "energy": 78.51245, "activity_lines": [ 178.612915, 180.473472, 181.594359, 182.520366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }