{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b06c80b-2f6d-48aa-b2ed-1a9739b1d159", "symbol": "KSM-F78", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) DJ Industrial Average", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.8, "architecture_energy": 63.064, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.252, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.74, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.36, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 172.533333, 170.370909, 4218.187619, 7214.964301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 174.6, "trend_reference": 10702.396667, "distance_from_trend": -0.983686, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14815.140385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988215, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.828565, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989386, "excess_performance": -1.018286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.338555, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988215, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.985878, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.712073, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989386, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.526191, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10464, "relative_activity": 1.248896, "balance": 1.526191, "dry_up": 1.473337, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.145696, "annualized_volatility": 6.317181, "from_high_reference": -0.989687, "from_low_reference": 0.091932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10702.396667, "fair_value_reference": 14815.140385, "structural_low": 159.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.016215, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.004326, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.084559, "worst_return": -0.989706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024472, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024437, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.124081, "worst_return": -0.989353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.012515, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136949, "worst_return": -0.048611, "sufficient": false 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"gate": "down", "direction": -65.993673, "energy": 74.462359, "activity_lines": [ 169.026667, 1839.101818, 6871.974286, 9465.523871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 171.1, "volume": 7565, "typical_volume": 7518.5, "trend": 11797.816667, "fair_value": 14989.516026, "relative_strength": -98.936688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.63448, "energy": 67.555072, "activity_lines": [ 170.02, 1001.603636, 5912.491429, 8679.910108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 172.8, "volume": 20600, "typical_volume": 8331.75, "trend": 11256.243333, "fair_value": 14902.803205, "relative_strength": -98.868715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.233, "energy": 66.92266, "activity_lines": [ 171.14, 445.667273, 5028.117619, 7929.909032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 174.6, "volume": 10464, "typical_volume": 8378.6, "trend": 10702.396667, "fair_value": 14815.140385, "relative_strength": -98.828565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.800284, "energy": 63.06444, "activity_lines": [ 172.533333, 170.370909, 4218.187619, 7214.964301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }