{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b0f48b7-6769-42fe-887c-18a1b4d1e31c", "symbol": "BMGU", "name": "BHG Retail REIT", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 74.318, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.431, "architecture_energy": 20.709, "architecture_maturity": 6.215, "architecture_confidence": 84.207, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.53, "rotation_up": 16.32, "upward_expansion": 11.84, "deceleration": 50.57, "rotation_down": 53.22, "downward_expansion": 68.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.446333, 0.449818, 0.450238, 0.449903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.445, "trend_reference": 0.450311, "distance_from_trend": -0.011793, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.452559, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016703, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.932691, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04871, "excess_performance": -0.106126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011793, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006854, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016703, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088682, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04871, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.122772, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17700, "relative_activity": 1.518662, "balance": 0.122772, "dry_up": 2.782068, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040622, "annualized_volatility": 0.121379, "from_high_reference": -0.090406, "from_low_reference": 0.392814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.450311, "fair_value_reference": 0.452559, "structural_low": 0.349449, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.004277, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.008766, "regime_survival": 0.65625, "best_return": 0.044642, "worst_return": -0.122449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.026656, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027969, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.086539, "worst_return": -0.103092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006451, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.096787, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.112802, 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02174, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059996, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115387, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004969, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", 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0.45, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 15615.0, "trend": 0.450217, "fair_value": 0.453172, "relative_strength": -13.025469, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.599494, "energy": 29.331681, "activity_lines": [ 0.454667, 0.453545, 0.451442, 0.450785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.46, "volume": 10300, "typical_volume": 14540.0, "trend": 0.450907, "fair_value": 0.453185, "relative_strength": -11.47196, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.677502, "energy": 37.530655, "activity_lines": [ 0.456667, 0.454909, 0.452378, 0.451416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.44, "volume": 99600, "typical_volume": 18450.0, "trend": 0.451096, "fair_value": 0.453069, "relative_strength": -16.088638, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.174645, "energy": 4.60564, "activity_lines": [ 0.451333, 0.452455, 0.451333, 0.450712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.445, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 17475.0, "trend": 0.451452, "fair_value": 0.452799, "relative_strength": -15.265294, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.745316, "energy": 14.195331, "activity_lines": [ 0.448333, 0.451091, 0.450786, 0.450319 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.445, "volume": 17700, "typical_volume": 11655.0, "trend": 0.450311, "fair_value": 0.452559, "relative_strength": -15.932691, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.430848, "energy": 20.709496, "activity_lines": [ 0.446333, 0.449818, 0.450238, 0.449903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }