{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b116b43-938a-41b5-a675-aae15d284321", "symbol": "VWSB", "name": "Vestas Wind Systems A/S", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.903, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.293, "architecture_energy": 8.815, "architecture_maturity": 15.256, "architecture_confidence": 71.65, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.1, "rotation_up": 28.47, "upward_expansion": 42.6, "deceleration": 72.58, "rotation_down": 26.34, "downward_expansion": 34.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.651334, 23.699455, 24.09342, 23.862563 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.870001, "trend_reference": 23.501046, "distance_from_trend": 0.0157, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.213984, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.18683, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.106617, "excess_performance": 0.041977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0157, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032292, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242324, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124793, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031868, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330099, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106617, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.999131, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110214, "relative_activity": 0.918092, "balance": 0.999131, "dry_up": 0.997057, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073153, "annualized_volatility": 0.364167, "from_high_reference": -0.120486, "from_low_reference": 0.680545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.501046, "fair_value_reference": 19.213984, "structural_low": 19.6667, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.04061, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.018412, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.158008, "worst_return": -0.240624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.153805, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.112523, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.019185, "worst_return": -0.300156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.133389, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.088106, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.258788, "worst_return": -0.460928, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.087214, "energy": 5.282053, "activity_lines": [ 23.803333, 23.886, 24.21493, 23.804337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.0, "volume": 91964, "typical_volume": 123769.6, "trend": 23.455776, "fair_value": 19.178544, "relative_strength": 11.924095, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.062546, "energy": 10.942614, "activity_lines": [ 23.927333, 23.836182, 24.235115, 23.842898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.42, "volume": 130754, "typical_volume": 120904.4, "trend": 23.492507, "fair_value": 19.186163, "relative_strength": 7.428617, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.781807, "energy": 10.192697, "activity_lines": [ 23.74, 23.720909, 24.186271, 23.84059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.46, "volume": 145842, "typical_volume": 122162.55, "trend": 23.496903, "fair_value": 19.193237, "relative_strength": 4.781797, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.402511, "energy": 9.685153, "activity_lines": [ 23.635333, 23.650909, 24.127064, 23.838493 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.870001, "volume": 110214, "typical_volume": 120046.85, "trend": 23.501046, "fair_value": 19.213984, "relative_strength": 3.18683, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.293408, "energy": 8.815479, "activity_lines": [ 23.651334, 23.699455, 24.09342, 23.862563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }