{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b150a8f-3b8f-4a9f-9d71-514d7d66705f", "symbol": "MSRUSA", "name": "UBS MSCI EM Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.865, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.502, "architecture_energy": 25.656, "architecture_maturity": 67.078, "architecture_confidence": 83.561, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.03, "rotation_up": 26.24, "upward_expansion": 59.0, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 31.04, "downward_expansion": 20.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.722934, 19.995055, 19.753943, 19.077191 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.030001, "trend_reference": 18.193028, "distance_from_trend": 0.100971, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.439634, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.490368, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.74589, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.223884, "excess_performance": 0.052993, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100971, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101847, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.490368, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041393, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037459, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107151, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.223884, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.337344, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43992, "relative_activity": 0.596498, "balance": 0.337344, "dry_up": 2.41177, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046826, "annualized_volatility": 0.251566, "from_high_reference": -0.058741, "from_low_reference": 0.498456 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.193028, "fair_value_reference": 13.439634, "structural_low": 15.566, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000753, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.001824, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.117544, "worst_return": -0.065391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055312, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.032757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.27193, "worst_return": -0.023976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.003295, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048086, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163814, "worst_return": -0.018436, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 68.073854, "activity_lines": [ 20.6276, 20.285473, 19.187452, 18.425567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.48, "volume": 112909, "typical_volume": 48102.3, "trend": 17.622593, "fair_value": 13.217172, "relative_strength": 9.311933, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.415803, "energy": 64.394504, "activity_lines": [ 20.618667, 20.393927, 19.396848, 18.622049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.312, "volume": 72257, "typical_volume": 49944.2, "trend": 17.764343, "fair_value": 13.272001, "relative_strength": 4.334397, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.068821, "energy": 45.752301, "activity_lines": [ 20.176, 20.246927, 19.478595, 18.731043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.698, "volume": 22252, "typical_volume": 49683.5, "trend": 17.921401, "fair_value": 13.325764, "relative_strength": 6.29906, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.656722, "energy": 35.491394, "activity_lines": [ 19.9352, 20.171854, 19.587086, 18.855795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.374001, "volume": 572975, "typical_volume": 73905.65, "trend": 18.050966, "fair_value": 13.379638, "relative_strength": 3.588509, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.461608, "energy": 24.429645, "activity_lines": [ 19.688867, 20.023655, 19.64711, 18.949511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.030001, "volume": 43992, "typical_volume": 73750.4, "trend": 18.193028, "fair_value": 13.439634, "relative_strength": 3.74589, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.501951, "energy": 25.655835, "activity_lines": [ 19.722934, 19.995055, 19.753943, 19.077191 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }