{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b16e2c5-6f09-4e30-bc36-bde2a6629c6e", "symbol": "XPAY", "name": "ROUNDHILL S&P 500 TARGET 20 MANAGED DISTRIBUTION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.706, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.9, "architecture_energy": 48.544, "architecture_maturity": 18.205, "architecture_confidence": 79.446, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.32, "rotation_up": 54.34, "upward_expansion": 79.33, "deceleration": 58.03, "rotation_down": 24.1, "downward_expansion": 5.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.014993, 52.669711, 52.385935, 51.512171 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.3508, "trend_reference": 50.535626, "distance_from_trend": 0.075495, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.082256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17943, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.684071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102613, "excess_performance": -0.023012, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075495, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026716, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17943, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008679, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016841, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013791, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102613, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.518912, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 337423, "relative_activity": 1.082225, "balance": 1.518912, "dry_up": 0.674021, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025162, "annualized_volatility": 0.149486, "from_high_reference": -0.003926, "from_low_reference": 0.208604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.535626, "fair_value_reference": 46.082256, "structural_low": 44.969896, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002961, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009102, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.010689, "worst_return": -0.016611, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.031261, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019729, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.031261, "worst_return": 0.031261, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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51.801115, 50.993975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.9203, "volume": 139542, "typical_volume": 323574.5, "trend": 50.247688, "fair_value": 45.920429, "relative_strength": -1.807365, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.224666, "energy": 32.321091, "activity_lines": [ 52.262229, 52.302735, 51.920409, 51.107691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.54, "volume": 183279, "typical_volume": 310273.25, "trend": 50.37366, "fair_value": 45.992381, "relative_strength": -1.66694, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.521257, "energy": 35.788742, "activity_lines": [ 52.3742, 52.314817, 52.079755, 51.255582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.3508, "volume": 337423, "typical_volume": 311786.45, "trend": 50.535626, "fair_value": 46.082256, "relative_strength": -1.684071, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.899527, "energy": 48.54415, "activity_lines": [ 53.014993, 52.669711, 52.385935, 51.512171 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }