{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b271a6c-4354-4a3f-ad5f-32cb899ed1f2", "symbol": "KBWB", "name": "INVESCO KBW BANK ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.908, "architecture_energy": 64.699, "architecture_maturity": 33.695, "architecture_confidence": 84.718, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.97, "rotation_up": 66.96, "upward_expansion": 87.03, "deceleration": 56.45, "rotation_down": 20.11, "downward_expansion": 11.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.805333, 95.715784, 92.361455, 89.694031 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 97.61, "trend_reference": 87.137276, "distance_from_trend": 0.120186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.199296, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.520422, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.69703, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084166, "excess_performance": -0.103287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.120186, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052601, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.520422, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101167, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02697, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114355, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084166, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.329179, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7679782, "relative_activity": 0.93659, "balance": 4.329179, "dry_up": 1.14768, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03498, "annualized_volatility": 0.208479, "from_high_reference": -0.018255, "from_low_reference": 0.376302 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.137276, "fair_value_reference": 64.199296, "structural_low": 74.94742, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.015382, "positive_rate": 0.53125, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.000168, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.125857, "worst_return": -0.176908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.029984, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.030644, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.206748, "worst_return": -0.347454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.063627, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.017672, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.331312, "worst_return": -0.214632, "sufficient": true }, { 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62.78771, "relative_strength": 1.337395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.380714, "energy": 89.789628, "activity_lines": [ 94.324753, 91.966953, 88.549753, 86.964853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 96.92, "volume": 14623869, "typical_volume": 8891424.6, "trend": 86.064359, "fair_value": 63.14222, "relative_strength": 6.541528, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.244865, "energy": 89.464136, "activity_lines": [ 95.414247, 93.256731, 89.636815, 87.692358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.62, "volume": 8787566, "typical_volume": 8632033.85, "trend": 86.424065, "fair_value": 63.490528, "relative_strength": 7.768022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.620253, "energy": 85.995622, "activity_lines": [ 96.084667, 94.271799, 90.62115, 88.373367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 96.07, "volume": 6551420, "typical_volume": 8312937.65, "trend": 86.785644, "fair_value": 63.838164, "relative_strength": 6.385013, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.644985, "energy": 73.948056, "activity_lines": [ 96.275333, 94.944478, 91.467267, 88.995686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 97.61, "volume": 7679782, "typical_volume": 8199722.95, "trend": 87.137276, "fair_value": 64.199296, "relative_strength": 2.69703, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.908089, "energy": 64.699164, "activity_lines": [ 96.805333, 95.715784, 92.361455, 89.694031 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }