{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b2c2bf7-5576-4fa4-8402-96e012c7f25e", "symbol": "TSI", "name": "The Thai Setakij Insurance Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.049, "architecture_energy": 24.765, "architecture_maturity": 23.192, "architecture_confidence": 65.758, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.56, "rotation_up": 57.91, "upward_expansion": 68.61, "deceleration": 56.84, "rotation_down": 14.68, "downward_expansion": 11.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.059333, 0.057091, 0.05681, 0.05686 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.06, "trend_reference": 0.055667, "distance_from_trend": 0.077844, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.09391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.361092, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.014149, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.2, "excess_performance": 0.007675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077844, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063694, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.361092, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174069, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020141, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148362, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.581812, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 540600, "relative_activity": 0.531495, "balance": 15.581812, "dry_up": 0.59486, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179487, "annualized_volatility": 1.044345, "from_high_reference": -0.142857, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.055667, "fair_value_reference": 0.09391, "structural_low": 0.04, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.37931, "median_excess_return": 0.00368, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.052294, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.058791, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.214286, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.277888, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.433333, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": 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"energy": 11.697612, "activity_lines": [ 0.053333, 0.055091, 0.055952, 0.055828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.06, "volume": 354800, "typical_volume": 1299825.0, "trend": 0.054667, "fair_value": 0.095769, "relative_strength": -4.860481, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.863689, "energy": 16.112408, "activity_lines": [ 0.055333, 0.055818, 0.056238, 0.056194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.06, "volume": 502500, "typical_volume": 1294660.0, "trend": 0.055, "fair_value": 0.094808, "relative_strength": -3.187939, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.663273, "energy": 18.767097, "activity_lines": [ 0.057333, 0.056545, 0.056524, 0.056538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.06, "volume": 540600, "typical_volume": 1017130.0, "trend": 0.055667, "fair_value": 0.09391, "relative_strength": -2.014149, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.049446, "energy": 24.764808, "activity_lines": [ 0.059333, 0.057091, 0.05681, 0.05686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }