{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b2cdfc1-cdbe-40e1-9727-973e2f45def3", "symbol": "LULU", "name": "Lululemon Athletica Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.123, "architecture_energy": 32.948, "architecture_maturity": 88.789, "architecture_confidence": 76.7, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.79, "rotation_up": 27.39, "upward_expansion": 21.15, "deceleration": 46.01, "rotation_down": 34.37, "downward_expansion": 59.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.876, 119.077273, 122.840095, 131.774796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 128.58, "trend_reference": 145.892333, "distance_from_trend": -0.118665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 284.377692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.547855, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.601258, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.256118, "excess_performance": -0.443572, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118665, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144487, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.547855, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022608, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.316013, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130942, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.256118, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.30858, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11393538, "relative_activity": 0.734092, "balance": 1.30858, "dry_up": 0.774752, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087515, "annualized_volatility": 0.475031, "from_high_reference": -0.431012, "from_low_reference": 0.231137 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 145.892333, "fair_value_reference": 284.377692, "structural_low": 104.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.003146, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.020641, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.249406, "worst_return": -0.257839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.02322, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.033398, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.299518, "worst_return": -0.304908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.09156, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.115957, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.322963, "worst_return": -0.385131, 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119.478909, 131.116333, 143.096581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 119.26, "volume": 13779846, "typical_volume": 16130082.6, "trend": 157.728, "fair_value": 291.058397, "relative_strength": -40.291636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.020343, "energy": 53.501861, "activity_lines": [ 117.669333, 118.925636, 128.842333, 140.430452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 116.33, "volume": 11864124, "typical_volume": 16281123.45, "trend": 154.624, "fair_value": 289.349231, "relative_strength": -38.178753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.258701, "energy": 49.397299, "activity_lines": [ 117.392667, 118.1, 126.613286, 137.759613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.28, "volume": 12225220, "typical_volume": 16245866.0, "trend": 151.467667, "fair_value": 287.658974, "relative_strength": -37.294448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.30488, "energy": 51.056229, "activity_lines": [ 116.595333, 117.171636, 124.51681, 135.156774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 118.87, "volume": 12615550, "typical_volume": 16229521.55, "trend": 148.403, "fair_value": 285.996603, "relative_strength": -34.290013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.895424, "energy": 45.696306, "activity_lines": [ 117.160667, 117.166182, 123.123429, 133.053699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 128.58, "volume": 11393538, "typical_volume": 15520592.85, "trend": 145.892333, "fair_value": 284.377692, "relative_strength": -31.601258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.12285, "energy": 32.948476, "activity_lines": [ 120.876, 119.077273, 122.840095, 131.774796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }