{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b30f73c-f699-45c1-842e-9cf826de96aa", "symbol": "ACG", "name": "ACG Metals Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.217, "architecture_energy": 93.272, "architecture_maturity": 50.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.43, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.88, "rotation_up": 85.2, "upward_expansion": 99.7, "deceleration": 39.11, "rotation_down": 10.45, "downward_expansion": 21.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 1980.333333, 1900.545455, 1789.428571, 1704.806452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 2060.0, "trend_reference": 1591.833333, "distance_from_trend": 0.294105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1071.826923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.921952, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 45.282608, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.42069, "excess_performance": 0.345991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.294105, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.921952, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.321723, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.452826, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085719, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.42069, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.89789, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27741, "relative_activity": 0.507398, "balance": 9.89789, "dry_up": 1.809543, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050037, "annualized_volatility": 0.561434, "from_high_reference": -0.009615, "from_low_reference": 2.322581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1591.833333, "fair_value_reference": 1071.826923, "structural_low": 1070.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.075339, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.044436, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.374517, "worst_return": -0.054054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.354037, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.295594, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.624, "worst_return": 0.110345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.870345, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.776906, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 1.32, "worst_return": 0.42069, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.302327, "energy": 68.087231, "activity_lines": [ 1726.666667, 1693.909091, 1622.47619, 1557.494624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1915.0, "volume": 46087, "typical_volume": 43852.3, "trend": 1471.166667, "fair_value": 1046.971154, "relative_strength": 50.431569, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.891355, "energy": 84.341001, "activity_lines": [ 1795.666667, 1738.545455, 1656.0, 1587.903226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1910.0, "volume": 31286, "typical_volume": 42714.1, "trend": 1500.166667, "fair_value": 1052.820513, "relative_strength": 45.853854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.823628, "energy": 91.089549, "activity_lines": [ 1845.333333, 1776.818182, 1687.214286, 1616.215054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1930.0, "volume": 203578, "typical_volume": 51125.9, "trend": 1528.166667, "fair_value": 1058.798077, "relative_strength": 42.966073, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.942764, "energy": 90.758441, "activity_lines": [ 1886.333333, 1813.272727, 1718.285714, 1643.946237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1970.0, "volume": 133128, "typical_volume": 55090.55, "trend": 1558.5, "fair_value": 1065.032051, "relative_strength": 41.883728, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.165659, "energy": 91.20651, "activity_lines": [ 1927.333333, 1851.909091, 1750.690476, 1672.451613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2060.0, "volume": 27741, "typical_volume": 54673.05, "trend": 1591.833333, "fair_value": 1071.826923, "relative_strength": 45.282608, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.216709, "energy": 93.2718, "activity_lines": [ 1980.333333, 1900.545455, 1789.428571, 1704.806452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }