{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b35c0dc-434f-4f4d-a6ce-8bd33ec6d475", "symbol": "605208", "name": "Shanghai Yongmaotai Automotive Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.24, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.772, "architecture_energy": 27.574, "architecture_maturity": 28.721, "architecture_confidence": 64.387, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.42, "rotation_up": 19.62, "upward_expansion": 19.98, "deceleration": 66.62, "rotation_down": 58.14, "downward_expansion": 37.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.353333, 14.446182, 14.688676, 14.48021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.62, "trend_reference": 14.222886, "distance_from_trend": -0.042388, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.595678, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28543, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.470633, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.048218, "excess_performance": -0.005014, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042388, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029384, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28543, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096926, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034706, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03145, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048218, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.226061, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66329365, "relative_activity": 1.04684, "balance": 1.226061, "dry_up": 1.671068, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161446, "annualized_volatility": 0.721317, "from_high_reference": -0.315922, "from_low_reference": 0.26228 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.222886, "fair_value_reference": 10.595678, "structural_low": 10.79, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.05017, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.033736, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.028458, "worst_return": -0.308017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.192531, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.149144, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.021477, "worst_return": -0.438669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.167131, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.107524, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.051501, "worst_return": -0.218295, "sufficient": 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76.09053, "activity_lines": [ 16.890667, 16.025727, 15.242992, 14.766374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.53, "volume": 149110439, "typical_volume": 54643632.45, "trend": 14.312886, "fair_value": 10.548151, "relative_strength": 14.370469, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.413744, "energy": 47.773559, "activity_lines": [ 16.593334, 16.037055, 15.33258, 14.850575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.48, "volume": 133328608, "typical_volume": 59511109.8, "trend": 14.266219, "fair_value": 10.55676, "relative_strength": -16.243826, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.324378, "energy": 9.075158, "activity_lines": [ 14.956, 15.284585, 15.028406, 14.667808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.96, "volume": 74757128, "typical_volume": 61407789.65, "trend": 14.221552, "fair_value": 10.570357, "relative_strength": -12.903503, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.246719, "energy": 22.482482, "activity_lines": [ 13.793334, 14.692025, 14.776708, 14.51902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.62, "volume": 66329365, "typical_volume": 63361501.55, "trend": 14.222886, "fair_value": 10.595678, "relative_strength": -3.470633, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.771645, "energy": 27.573515, "activity_lines": [ 13.353333, 14.446182, 14.688676, 14.48021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }