{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b3c0927-9c36-4f3d-8eda-bb13d8aeb6cf", "symbol": "GOTU", "name": "Gaotu Techedu Inc DRC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.251, "architecture_energy": 64.073, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.013, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.1, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 50.38, "downward_expansion": 65.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.758667, 1.736545, 1.754619, 2.484481 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.83, "trend_reference": 6.117117, "distance_from_trend": -0.700839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.803828, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.731034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -87.44968, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.944629, "excess_performance": -1.070254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.700839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.596767, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.731034, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.874497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009581, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.944629, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.897617, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1756059, "relative_activity": 0.824948, "balance": 0.897617, "dry_up": 0.717824, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118773, "annualized_volatility": 3.82402, "from_high_reference": -0.950806, "from_low_reference": 0.307143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.117117, "fair_value_reference": 6.803828, "structural_low": 1.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.013646, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.03318, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 2.495238, "worst_return": -0.759273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.074468, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.058038, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.950413, "worst_return": -0.745647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.220426, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.26283, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.487603, "worst_return": -0.875095, "sufficient": true }, { 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"down", "direction": -55.666, "energy": 64.481711, "activity_lines": [ 1.752667, 1.722909, 1.793286, 4.28644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.71, "volume": 1116262, "typical_volume": 2237724.5, "trend": 9.227193, "fair_value": 6.844085, "relative_strength": -87.926607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.560006, "energy": 64.787566, "activity_lines": [ 1.755333, 1.716727, 1.778524, 3.738018 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.56, "volume": 1715617, "typical_volume": 2156922.15, "trend": 8.217193, "fair_value": 6.825751, "relative_strength": -88.880623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.476823, "energy": 69.637907, "activity_lines": [ 1.695333, 1.688, 1.751762, 3.243361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.82, "volume": 1524162, "typical_volume": 2156998.55, "trend": 7.19545, "fair_value": 6.813251, "relative_strength": -87.125177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.585461, "energy": 64.332153, "activity_lines": [ 1.728, 1.712182, 1.752143, 2.830639 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.83, "volume": 1756059, "typical_volume": 2128691.3, "trend": 6.117117, "fair_value": 6.803828, "relative_strength": -87.44968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.250697, "energy": 64.073142, "activity_lines": [ 1.758667, 1.736545, 1.754619, 2.484481 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }