{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b3d29ee-edb1-46e8-98b9-3987c6e4d5bb", "symbol": "TSK", "name": "Talisker Resources Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.503, "architecture_energy": 26.0, "architecture_maturity": 56.672, "architecture_confidence": 67.312, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.78, "rotation_up": 26.24, "upward_expansion": 12.8, "deceleration": 63.5, "rotation_down": 38.21, "downward_expansion": 69.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.220667, 1.209636, 1.260905, 1.336968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.45, "trend_reference": 1.479333, "distance_from_trend": -0.019829, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.741045, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.956697, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.32024, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.198895, "excess_performance": -0.319316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019829, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050492, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.956697, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.306914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180394, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.198895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.521931, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1560000, "relative_activity": 1.050555, "balance": 0.521931, "dry_up": 0.893089, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107162, "annualized_volatility": 0.727685, "from_high_reference": -0.382979, "from_low_reference": 1.457627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.479333, "fair_value_reference": 0.741045, "structural_low": 1.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.016393, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.02511, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 4.066667, "worst_return": -0.377778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.074762, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 2.5, "worst_return": -0.361702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.19918, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.217751, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.428571, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.206897, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136842, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140351, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.204082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.968254, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094891, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17931, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040541, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090226, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.075, "volume": 1239100, "typical_volume": 1133060.0, "trend": 0.108, "fair_value": 0.236186, "relative_strength": -36.332998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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"trend": 1.517667, "fair_value": 0.71909, "relative_strength": -28.779027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.233375, "energy": 73.378543, "activity_lines": [ 1.161333, 1.214, 1.289952, 1.391484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.09, "volume": 1246800, "typical_volume": 1820490.0, "trend": 1.504, "fair_value": 0.725532, "relative_strength": -27.327212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.731609, "energy": 66.028955, "activity_lines": [ 1.127333, 1.183091, 1.265048, 1.363892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.13, "volume": 868400, "typical_volume": 1594740.0, "trend": 1.493333, "fair_value": 0.732263, "relative_strength": -24.779636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.088786, "energy": 61.633731, "activity_lines": [ 1.119333, 1.165455, 1.246905, 1.339763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.45, "volume": 1560000, "typical_volume": 1484930.0, "trend": 1.479333, "fair_value": 0.741045, "relative_strength": -7.32024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.502711, "energy": 26.000134, "activity_lines": [ 1.220667, 1.209636, 1.260905, 1.336968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }