{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b418b74-933d-4fff-a1a9-c0dabb2c841d", "symbol": "ENVIP", "name": "Envipco Holding N.V.", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.766, "architecture_energy": 37.995, "architecture_maturity": 66.909, "architecture_confidence": 60.253, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.82, "rotation_up": 26.2, "upward_expansion": 17.24, "deceleration": 66.69, "rotation_down": 41.29, "downward_expansion": 67.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.873333, 41.641818, 44.383095, 46.296021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.75, "trend_reference": 48.335, "distance_from_trend": -0.07417, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 57.313141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219202, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.499789, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082992, "excess_performance": -0.207986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07417, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111026, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219202, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156497, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00337, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082992, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.827192, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 907997, "relative_activity": 1.275034, "balance": 0.827192, "dry_up": 1.272038, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084143, "annualized_volatility": 0.475547, "from_high_reference": -0.533854, "from_low_reference": 0.202957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.335, "fair_value_reference": 57.313141, "structural_low": 37.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.069474, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.030989, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.177632, "worst_return": -0.133409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.071696, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.018897, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.321586, "worst_return": -0.17446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.102352, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.076019, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.629956, "worst_return": -0.123201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.184211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.192029, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.091398, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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80.060433, "activity_lines": [ 42.446667, 44.878182, 47.97381, 49.308387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 38.0, "volume": 878069, "typical_volume": 798701.05, "trend": 51.025, "fair_value": 56.971474, "relative_strength": -43.527623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.246034, "energy": 89.819992, "activity_lines": [ 40.740001, 43.288182, 46.880238, 48.413441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.299999, "volume": 1015340, "typical_volume": 763243.25, "trend": 50.368333, "fair_value": 57.052885, "relative_strength": -38.225814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.916801, "energy": 76.934316, "activity_lines": [ 40.663333, 42.516364, 46.138572, 47.786022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.450001, "volume": 514565, "typical_volume": 747233.15, "trend": 49.65, "fair_value": 57.116026, "relative_strength": -39.885686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.898368, "energy": 73.247447, "activity_lines": [ 40.473334, 41.797273, 45.365953, 47.146129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.599998, "volume": 1185552, "typical_volume": 731615.8, "trend": 48.876667, "fair_value": 57.192949, "relative_strength": -38.857198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.526826, "energy": 56.773185, "activity_lines": [ 40.446666, 41.268182, 44.652619, 46.562258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.75, "volume": 907997, "typical_volume": 712135.55, "trend": 48.335, "fair_value": 57.313141, "relative_strength": -31.499789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.766239, "energy": 37.994978, "activity_lines": [ 41.873333, 41.641818, 44.383095, 46.296021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }