{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b45ce0f-fd19-467d-8c84-cbecce63ea8a", "symbol": "CEBR6", "name": "Companhia Energ\u00e9tica de Bras\u00edlia - CEB", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 64.18, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.454, "architecture_energy": 39.475, "architecture_maturity": 29.449, "architecture_confidence": 84.188, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.0, "rotation_up": 22.23, "upward_expansion": 4.72, "deceleration": 57.39, "rotation_down": 53.69, "downward_expansion": 80.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.828207, 27.942399, 28.758652, 29.220429 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.1, "trend_reference": 29.606782, "distance_from_trend": -0.084669, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.959408, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.42937, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.08291, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.083078, "excess_performance": -0.02603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084669, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01436, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.42937, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326232, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104485, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083078, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.471154, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19100, "relative_activity": 0.892732, "balance": 1.471154, "dry_up": 0.882215, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059321, "annualized_volatility": 0.213562, "from_high_reference": -0.185379, "from_low_reference": 0.548078 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.606782, "fair_value_reference": 18.959408, "structural_low": 27.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.024103, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.002016, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.315636, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.037443, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016358, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.114061, "worst_return": -0.218682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.03, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.047365, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.049598, "worst_return": -0.280105, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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29.311061, 29.593488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.129999, "volume": 17800, "typical_volume": 21205.0, "trend": 29.666702, "fair_value": 18.73345, "relative_strength": -0.736842, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.797811, "energy": 36.986241, "activity_lines": [ 28.240184, 28.311844, 29.152528, 29.492692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.0, "volume": 23500, "typical_volume": 21075.0, "trend": 29.653374, "fair_value": 18.848781, "relative_strength": -3.64034, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.884334, "energy": 30.585327, "activity_lines": [ 28.178077, 28.172576, 28.992785, 29.385163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.1, "volume": 19100, "typical_volume": 21395.0, "trend": 29.606782, "fair_value": 18.959408, "relative_strength": -4.08291, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.454126, "energy": 39.475379, "activity_lines": [ 27.828207, 27.942399, 28.758652, 29.220429 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }