{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b46dae9-476c-4af9-8900-cf4b683828b8", "symbol": "CHINA", "name": "W.I.S.E. KTAM CSI 300 China Tracker", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.435, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.31, "architecture_energy": 24.593, "architecture_maturity": 62.053, "architecture_confidence": 79.077, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.96, "rotation_up": 22.64, "upward_expansion": 55.91, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 32.31, "downward_expansion": 19.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.598667, 7.661091, 7.610952, 7.483656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.59, "trend_reference": 7.311, "distance_from_trend": 0.038162, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.189744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.226222, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.10589, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1, "excess_performance": -0.092325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038162, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043187, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.226222, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000201, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071059, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037591, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.823291, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 264200, "relative_activity": 0.867638, "balance": 1.823291, "dry_up": 0.980279, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027871, "annualized_volatility": 0.121732, "from_high_reference": -0.052434, "from_low_reference": 0.246305 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.311, "fair_value_reference": 6.189744, "structural_low": 6.81, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000781, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018453, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.025223, "worst_return": -0.07084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.046823, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.111557, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.037425, "worst_return": -0.13181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002914, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035439, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.151198, "worst_return": -0.076923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.078893, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045337, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.001757, "worst_return": -0.159544, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02109, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054264, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04441, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003317, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007042, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031915, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010169, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 7.45, "volume": 539400, "typical_volume": 426295.0, "trend": 7.232667, "fair_value": 6.161538, "relative_strength": -10.447113, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.540306, "energy": 50.944823, "activity_lines": [ 7.703333, 7.698909, 7.560905, 7.415677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.68, "volume": 302700, "typical_volume": 334715.0, "trend": 7.264, "fair_value": 6.171795, "relative_strength": -7.816992, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.35284, "energy": 35.874282, "activity_lines": [ 7.679333, 7.699818, 7.587095, 7.444538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.57, "volume": 87700, "typical_volume": 305800.0, "trend": 7.289667, "fair_value": 6.180192, "relative_strength": -8.021072, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.629677, "energy": 22.758798, "activity_lines": [ 7.625333, 7.678909, 7.599286, 7.46428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.59, "volume": 264200, "typical_volume": 304505.0, "trend": 7.311, "fair_value": 6.189744, "relative_strength": -7.10589, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.309689, "energy": 24.593128, "activity_lines": [ 7.598667, 7.661091, 7.610952, 7.483656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }