{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b4bd84f-f95c-4701-82b2-631da046bfca", "symbol": "688282", "name": "Beijing Navigation Control Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.643, "architecture_energy": 73.945, "architecture_maturity": 23.679, "architecture_confidence": 88.862, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.26, "rotation_up": 10.61, "upward_expansion": 17.21, "deceleration": 37.42, "rotation_down": 71.28, "downward_expansion": 90.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.188667, 56.911454, 65.631143, 68.942559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 56.5, "trend_reference": 72.528, "distance_from_trend": -0.220991, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.983782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284564, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.45304, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191124, "excess_performance": -0.14792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220991, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028129, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284564, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.949198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.621197, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191124, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.211279, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3710959, "relative_activity": 0.494896, "balance": 0.211279, "dry_up": 0.701028, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189054, "annualized_volatility": 0.789649, "from_high_reference": -0.450816, "from_low_reference": 0.361446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.528, "fair_value_reference": 43.983782, "structural_low": 42.900002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008036, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.006653, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.371822, "worst_return": -0.448598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.092111, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077242, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.151786, "worst_return": -0.379381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.169807, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.19813, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.192941, "worst_return": -0.532556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 43.899359, "relative_strength": -18.843408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.534581, "energy": 71.994175, "activity_lines": [ 55.390665, 60.833817, 69.086761, 71.426494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.830002, "volume": 3504498, "typical_volume": 7595870.75, "trend": 72.761333, "fair_value": 43.90468, "relative_strength": -17.169358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.124062, "energy": 74.068443, "activity_lines": [ 53.114667, 58.019272, 67.02819, 69.991677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.5, "volume": 3710959, "typical_volume": 7498455.8, "trend": 72.528, "fair_value": 43.983782, "relative_strength": -10.45304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.643055, "energy": 73.944855, "activity_lines": [ 53.188667, 56.911454, 65.631143, 68.942559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }