{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b4bdda9-92fe-4bfe-a0b2-02c79f9e41c8", "symbol": "INC", "name": "Innovatec S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.043, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.908, "architecture_energy": 37.138, "architecture_maturity": 9.969, "architecture_confidence": 67.151, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.15, "rotation_up": 62.86, "upward_expansion": 46.07, "deceleration": 19.44, "rotation_down": 15.84, "downward_expansion": 25.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.200073, 0.196233, 0.191754, 0.193072 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.204, "trend_reference": 0.1991, "distance_from_trend": 0.024611, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.629457, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.675911, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.47888, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.087248, "excess_performance": -0.25814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024611, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053932, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.675911, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065819, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06823, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087248, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.620692, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1189055, "relative_activity": 1.557638, "balance": 4.620692, "dry_up": 1.055736, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058107, "annualized_volatility": 0.304692, "from_high_reference": -0.296552, "from_low_reference": 0.181924 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1991, "fair_value_reference": 0.629457, "structural_low": 0.1726, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.031953, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.022063, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.17134, "worst_return": -0.137695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.084835, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.163056, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.309295, "worst_return": -0.238057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.142088, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.230374, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.060897, "worst_return": -0.214575, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.322981, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.439494, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.088141, "worst_return": -0.441261, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104132, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.007449, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.168792, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.409493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055363, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129482, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025057, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117409, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024096, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051546, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.107, "volume": 870608, "typical_volume": 1254485.0, "trend": 1.421467, "fair_value": 1.295814, "relative_strength": -36.262386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"trend": 0.2018, "fair_value": 0.641707, "relative_strength": -21.761572, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.77462, "energy": 13.973909, "activity_lines": [ 0.195487, 0.192055, 0.189526, 0.193034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.199, "volume": 525242, "typical_volume": 730845.3, "trend": 0.200617, "fair_value": 0.635482, "relative_strength": -21.074676, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.964367, "energy": 17.761409, "activity_lines": [ 0.197413, 0.193896, 0.190376, 0.192854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.204, "volume": 1189055, "typical_volume": 763370.55, "trend": 0.1991, "fair_value": 0.629457, "relative_strength": -20.47888, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.908421, "energy": 37.138033, "activity_lines": [ 0.200073, 0.196233, 0.191754, 0.193072 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }