{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b4f52e0-4c3f-48d9-94b0-78e89eb90cba", "symbol": "XMTD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Taiwan UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.36, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.058, "architecture_energy": 26.141, "architecture_maturity": 73.02, "architecture_confidence": 90.439, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.09, "rotation_up": 26.62, "upward_expansion": 58.96, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 31.05, "downward_expansion": 20.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 141.883332, 144.822909, 142.390571, 134.681828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 145.929993, "trend_reference": 124.169334, "distance_from_trend": 0.17525, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.912695, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.897346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 25.62663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.457842, "excess_performance": 0.406607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.17525, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185487, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.897346, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.256266, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193519, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.457842, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.626878, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20860, "relative_activity": 1.481471, "balance": 0.626878, "dry_up": 1.334869, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071578, "annualized_volatility": 0.34876, "from_high_reference": -0.067302, "from_low_reference": 0.907332 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 124.169334, "fair_value_reference": 76.912695, "structural_low": 96.510002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.040252, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.051763, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.292791, "worst_return": -0.084381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.088742, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.081126, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.553321, "worst_return": -0.195979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045602, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.036198, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.641693, "worst_return": -0.062792, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051164, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10959, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131913, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": 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"direction": 45.855144, "energy": 38.588549, "activity_lines": [ 144.332, 146.654909, 140.584048, 132.090129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 137.600006, "volume": 28540, "typical_volume": 13609.6, "trend": 122.441167, "fair_value": 76.291028, "relative_strength": 19.815082, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.582957, "energy": 24.622931, "activity_lines": [ 141.420669, 144.961001, 141.178382, 133.16642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 145.929993, "volume": 20860, "typical_volume": 14080.6, "trend": 124.169334, "fair_value": 76.912695, "relative_strength": 25.62663, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.057873, "energy": 26.140654, "activity_lines": [ 141.883332, 144.822909, 142.390571, 134.681828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }