{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b573343-c2ac-4d5e-ada1-060d7dc18166", "symbol": "600751", "name": "HNA Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.279, "architecture_energy": 40.329, "architecture_maturity": 86.956, "architecture_confidence": 63.637, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.67, "rotation_up": 26.89, "upward_expansion": 18.16, "deceleration": 66.73, "rotation_down": 41.23, "downward_expansion": 68.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.014667, 2.988553, 3.163619, 3.345217 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.14, "trend_reference": 3.574287, "distance_from_trend": -0.121503, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.072042, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.004509, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.151351, "excess_performance": -0.108148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121503, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091544, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022121, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.457423, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169560514, "relative_activity": 1.020833, "balance": 0.457423, "dry_up": 1.001878, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080896, "annualized_volatility": 0.300294, "from_high_reference": -0.407547, "from_low_reference": 0.158672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.574287, "fair_value_reference": 3.072042, "structural_low": 2.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.015564, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.004529, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.116279, "worst_return": -0.115711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.036807, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.016708, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.206447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039568, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.025307, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.206573, "worst_return": -0.151351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113553, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011811, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.204819, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.555944, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.243518, "energy": 87.634062, "activity_lines": [ 2.937714, 3.083038, 3.347402, 3.51441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.84, "volume": 161283373, "typical_volume": 198979325.25, "trend": 3.658287, "fair_value": 3.062042, "relative_strength": -24.716142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.835558, "energy": 83.228091, "activity_lines": [ 2.889467, 3.009196, 3.278504, 3.459682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.88, "volume": 179445721, "typical_volume": 189530924.45, "trend": 3.62862, "fair_value": 3.064863, "relative_strength": -24.067456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.16503, "energy": 68.00337, "activity_lines": [ 2.874, 2.962935, 3.220082, 3.40947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.09, "volume": 155358374, "typical_volume": 183913931.05, "trend": 3.597287, "fair_value": 3.068837, "relative_strength": -18.501412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.570109, "energy": 53.994657, "activity_lines": [ 2.942, 2.968108, 3.18747, 3.37472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.14, "volume": 169560514, "typical_volume": 166100107.5, "trend": 3.574287, "fair_value": 3.072042, "relative_strength": -19.004509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.279213, "energy": 40.329037, "activity_lines": [ 3.014667, 2.988553, 3.163619, 3.345217 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }