{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b576639-42b9-481a-94ad-149f11a89867", "symbol": "ALMOU", "name": "Moulinvest S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 78.74, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.211, "architecture_energy": 80.424, "architecture_maturity": 13.275, "architecture_confidence": 80.046, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.93, "rotation_up": 8.39, "upward_expansion": 17.85, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 82.53, "downward_expansion": 95.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.733333, 22.427273, 22.937143, 23.226965 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 21.4, "trend_reference": 23.54062, "distance_from_trend": -0.090933, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.242523, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.11212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.148038, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149467, "excess_performance": -0.202778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090933, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.11212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19011, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149467, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.296594, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2361, "relative_activity": 0.895268, "balance": 0.296594, "dry_up": 1.932732, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048167, "annualized_volatility": 0.194294, "from_high_reference": -0.167315, "from_low_reference": 0.215047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.54062, "fair_value_reference": 19.242523, "structural_low": 20.1, "invalidation": 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23.253334, 23.438182, 23.533333, 23.655976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.5, "volume": 9556, "typical_volume": 2455.7, "trend": 23.653195, "fair_value": 19.296061, "relative_strength": -6.372014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.809615, "energy": 68.971654, "activity_lines": [ 22.613334, 23.078182, 23.330952, 23.516827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.4, "volume": 6496, "typical_volume": 2635.2, "trend": 23.639664, "fair_value": 19.270525, "relative_strength": -8.205144, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.204521, "energy": 78.452855, "activity_lines": [ 22.106667, 22.732727, 23.129524, 23.371459 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.4, "volume": 2361, "typical_volume": 2637.2, "trend": 23.54062, "fair_value": 19.242523, "relative_strength": -10.148038, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.21098, "energy": 80.424084, "activity_lines": [ 21.733333, 22.427273, 22.937143, 23.226965 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }