{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b58699d-f1ee-4e87-b655-0c3e2b66fc89", "symbol": "SMAX", "name": "Hamilton U.S. Equity YIELD MAXIMIZER ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.299, "architecture_energy": 34.392, "architecture_maturity": 63.957, "architecture_confidence": 84.778, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.33, "rotation_up": 36.46, "upward_expansion": 62.98, "deceleration": 85.48, "rotation_down": 27.66, "downward_expansion": 21.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.358112, 22.439584, 22.140096, 21.557349 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.67, "trend_reference": 20.856268, "distance_from_trend": 0.086963, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.09856, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325843, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.211176, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.155433, "excess_performance": 0.035012, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086963, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046218, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325843, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036434, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002112, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01021, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155433, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.376447, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72800, "relative_activity": 0.521677, "balance": 2.376447, "dry_up": 0.746148, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030432, "annualized_volatility": 0.137951, "from_high_reference": -0.02689, "from_low_reference": 0.298945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.856268, "fair_value_reference": 17.09856, "structural_low": 18.554243, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.021117, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019341, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021117, "worst_return": 0.021117, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.04629, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032484, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.04629, "worst_return": -0.04629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.1686, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.067419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1686, "worst_return": 0.1686, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028639, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03259, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033985, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014793, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021583, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026759, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060021, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013944, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031577, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"volume": 102800, "typical_volume": 140270.0, "trend": 20.682082, "fair_value": 17.025415, "relative_strength": 0.884849, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.993038, "energy": 48.057389, "activity_lines": [ 22.415765, 22.460698, 21.937874, 21.345542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.059999, "volume": 116700, "typical_volume": 142385.0, "trend": 20.7649, "fair_value": 17.060137, "relative_strength": 0.693837, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.853714, "energy": 35.889343, "activity_lines": [ 22.277206, 22.395464, 22.016663, 21.434439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.67, "volume": 72800, "typical_volume": 139550.0, "trend": 20.856268, "fair_value": 17.09856, "relative_strength": 0.211176, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.298762, "energy": 34.392122, "activity_lines": [ 22.358112, 22.439584, 22.140096, 21.557349 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }