{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b5b220d-e2d8-47be-8186-6ddb6b7b6d3c", "symbol": "BONS", "name": "Bonus BioGroup Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.165, "architecture_energy": 89.357, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.854, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.16, "rotation_up": 9.71, "upward_expansion": 21.76, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 80.49, "downward_expansion": 97.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.264133, 0.287182, 0.325952, 0.352206 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.254, "trend_reference": 0.387967, "distance_from_trend": -0.345305, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.221673, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145832, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.012996, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.35369, "excess_performance": -0.38259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.345305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039289, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145832, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.800976, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28013, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.35369, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186685, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5433428, "relative_activity": 1.31289, "balance": 0.186685, "dry_up": 1.207813, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132344, "annualized_volatility": 0.565664, "from_high_reference": -0.582923, "from_low_reference": 0.209524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.387967, "fair_value_reference": 0.221673, "structural_low": 0.229, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.061224, "positive_rate": 0.275862, "directional_follow_through": 0.689655, "median_excess_return": -0.056017, "regime_survival": 0.931034, "best_return": 0.787234, "worst_return": -0.422481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.179687, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.20314, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.590909, "worst_return": -0.4756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.238223, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.312018, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.70306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076577, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.189055, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.14486, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", 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0.307533, 0.327018, 0.357852, 0.37829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.259, "volume": 3687845, "typical_volume": 4658576.7, "trend": 0.394533, "fair_value": 0.220397, "relative_strength": -28.706145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.240693, "energy": 91.298081, "activity_lines": [ 0.2884, 0.311073, 0.346357, 0.369604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.265, "volume": 2584878, "typical_volume": 4313404.9, "trend": 0.394133, "fair_value": 0.221058, "relative_strength": -24.962064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.947515, "energy": 89.931982, "activity_lines": [ 0.275867, 0.298927, 0.33629, 0.361247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.254, "volume": 5433428, "typical_volume": 4138525.85, "trend": 0.387967, "fair_value": 0.221673, "relative_strength": -28.012996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.164678, "energy": 89.35652, "activity_lines": [ 0.264133, 0.287182, 0.325952, 0.352206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }