{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b5dbc21-e9ca-4b5b-89de-a5ce60a60f6f", "symbol": "000881", "name": "CGN Nuclear Technology Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.037, "architecture_energy": 52.212, "architecture_maturity": 75.152, "architecture_confidence": 92.806, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 25.69, "upward_expansion": 8.59, "deceleration": 60.49, "rotation_down": 52.81, "downward_expansion": 81.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.326, 6.374364, 6.799714, 7.115613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.43, "trend_reference": 7.585, "distance_from_trend": -0.152274, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.351346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.12533, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.018177, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.233611, "excess_performance": -0.241011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152274, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.12533, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190245, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00154, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233611, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.384783, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53840424, "relative_activity": 1.143772, "balance": 0.384783, "dry_up": 0.954243, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078, "annualized_volatility": 0.339572, "from_high_reference": -0.336429, "from_low_reference": 0.071667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.585, "fair_value_reference": 7.351346, "structural_low": 6.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.003241, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": 0.014442, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.21273, "worst_return": -0.162822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.022724, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.005032, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.194595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.041981, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.185583, "worst_return": -0.223958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-22.730567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.809193, "energy": 87.791639, "activity_lines": [ 6.275333, 6.618727, 7.065381, 7.39 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.19, "volume": 43801854, "typical_volume": 50719216.4, "trend": 7.758667, "fair_value": 7.3725, "relative_strength": -22.351084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.546192, "energy": 78.644141, "activity_lines": [ 6.220667, 6.481455, 6.951667, 7.283419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.4, "volume": 36660861, "typical_volume": 48007798.2, "trend": 7.672333, "fair_value": 7.361026, "relative_strength": -17.873725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.619801, "energy": 59.86263, "activity_lines": [ 6.276, 6.412727, 6.869381, 7.195763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.43, "volume": 53840424, "typical_volume": 47072669.3, "trend": 7.585, "fair_value": 7.351346, "relative_strength": -21.018177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.037247, "energy": 52.211872, "activity_lines": [ 6.326, 6.374364, 6.799714, 7.115613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }