{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b625e62-71f5-4f83-8434-4edf5b442ed9", "symbol": "601882", "name": "Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.53, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.867, "architecture_energy": 48.025, "architecture_maturity": 5.409, "architecture_confidence": 85.387, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.76, "rotation_up": 14.76, "upward_expansion": 11.56, "deceleration": 37.88, "rotation_down": 58.37, "downward_expansion": 80.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.851333, 19.196182, 20.011868, 20.144591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.41, "trend_reference": 20.273853, "distance_from_trend": -0.042609, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.854414, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.11185, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.531775, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002769, "excess_performance": 0.040435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042609, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005224, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.11185, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131817, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002769, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.641893, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16570789, "relative_activity": 0.697228, "balance": 0.641893, "dry_up": 1.144729, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105616, "annualized_volatility": 0.50595, "from_high_reference": -0.229762, "from_low_reference": 0.100964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.273853, "fair_value_reference": 21.854414, "structural_low": 17.629999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.01008, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022146, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.16136, "worst_return": -0.131497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011938, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.067309, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.23194, "worst_return": -0.196595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012789, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050818, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055942, "worst_return": -0.039109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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20.293251, "fair_value": 22.038916, "relative_strength": -5.25523, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.861963, "energy": 29.287754, "activity_lines": [ 19.276666, 19.981091, 20.428293, 20.424775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.940001, "volume": 31105520, "typical_volume": 25227840.65, "trend": 20.263796, "fair_value": 21.96858, "relative_strength": -7.219682, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.77432, "energy": 36.352436, "activity_lines": [ 18.709333, 19.452182, 20.189682, 20.272952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.129999, "volume": 26590136, "typical_volume": 23996626.05, "trend": 20.2658, "fair_value": 21.907519, "relative_strength": -1.383217, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.461046, "energy": 49.478015, "activity_lines": [ 18.756, 19.256, 20.081745, 20.199804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.41, "volume": 16570789, "typical_volume": 23766664.0, "trend": 20.273853, "fair_value": 21.854414, "relative_strength": -2.531775, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.867364, "energy": 48.024837, "activity_lines": [ 18.851333, 19.196182, 20.011868, 20.144591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }