{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8b63860d-5d20-4c27-a22d-f4b3850eaae7", "symbol": "HGGG", "name": "Harvest Global Gold Giants Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.421, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.659, "architecture_energy": 26.653, "architecture_maturity": 40.789, "architecture_confidence": 60.76, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.14, "rotation_up": 27.14, "upward_expansion": 17.91, "deceleration": 62.27, "rotation_down": 37.05, "downward_expansion": 65.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.916667, 83.206909, 85.822381, 89.026861 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 94.190002, "trend_reference": 93.519, "distance_from_trend": 0.007175, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.645962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.823763, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.013004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047624, "excess_performance": -0.168045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007175, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009819, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.823763, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250692, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03013, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153374, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047624, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.313901, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16200, "relative_activity": 1.41238, "balance": 0.313901, "dry_up": 2.035745, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066355, "annualized_volatility": 0.594491, "from_high_reference": -0.221506, "from_low_reference": 0.69437 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.519, "fair_value_reference": 51.645962, "structural_low": 74.709999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.031641, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.010279, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.171278, "worst_return": -0.114605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002441, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.045054, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.272217, "worst_return": -0.055189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.047337, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.03911, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.316221, "worst_return": -0.116762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027463, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117586, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02843, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039248, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.274485, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", 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62.60856, "activity_lines": [ 83.675334, 84.982182, 88.922905, 92.12099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 75.110001, "volume": 51800, "typical_volume": 11575.0, "trend": 94.260334, "fair_value": 50.517757, "relative_strength": -19.386409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.359992, "energy": 74.273912, "activity_lines": [ 80.719334, 82.83, 87.235524, 90.851183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 80.739998, "volume": 7000, "typical_volume": 10975.0, "trend": 93.854, "fair_value": 50.867436, "relative_strength": -13.870993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.213464, "energy": 64.995375, "activity_lines": [ 80.196, 82.100909, 86.300476, 89.978903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.43, "volume": 18400, "typical_volume": 11450.0, "trend": 93.522667, "fair_value": 51.207115, "relative_strength": -16.242943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.861618, "energy": 68.183157, "activity_lines": [ 79.250666, 81.139273, 85.266143, 88.983807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.190002, "volume": 16200, "typical_volume": 11470.0, "trend": 93.519, "fair_value": 51.645962, "relative_strength": -3.013004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.658959, "energy": 26.652975, "activity_lines": [ 83.916667, 83.206909, 85.822381, 89.026861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }